Well, it has been one hush hush primary season in Kentucky. The quality of the candidates is the first and most important reason for the lack of interest in this year's primaries, along with the many unopposed candidates.
I for one have paid little to no attention to any candidate in 2015 but we are prepared to make a few predictions and provide some analysis.
Governor: Democratic Party
It was over when former Lt., Governor Daniel Mongiardo opted not run for the Democratic nomination for governor. Jack Conway has had a free ride in the primary and is 100% guaranteed the nomination. The latest polling indicates that he is leading all potential GOP nominees by a healthy margin as well, which is not a surprise considering the Democratic Party's domination in voter registration in Kentucky. The race for the general will tighten up, I can guarantee that.
Nominee: Jack Conway
Governor: Republican Party
This has been a nasty, as expected, race between the 3 main GOP'ers seeking the nomination. It is too early to tell if the allegations made against AG Commissioner James Comer that he beat his college girlfriend and forced her into an abortion will result in his eventual defeat. I would say YES.
Matt Bevin's lack if fundraising success must be concern the Republican Party in Kentucky, especially if he pulls out a victory on election day and the latest polling indicates that he may do just that.
Comer's polling took a nose dive after Matt Bevin entered the race and the latest polling indicates that whoever win next week will do so by an extremely close margin.
We must add that Hal Heiner has the most campaign cash on hand and also picked up the Lexington Herald Leader's endorsement which could be very important in the days leading up to the election.
Latest polling (Courtesy WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll)
James Comer - 26%
Matt Bevin - 27%
Hal Heiner - 25%
Scott - 8%
Undecided - 14%
MoE = +/-4.4%
As you can clearly see in the polling results above this race is clearly within the Margin of Error of 4.4%. The unusually high Undecided total may result in a surprise or two on election day.
The credibility of election polling has taken a massive hit over the last year. As you recall last year's highly publicized U.S. Senate Race showed Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes polling close to Mitch McConnell throughout. Of course the results resulted in something completely different as McConnell annihilated Grimes at the polls on election day.
Could this year's primary result in the same disparity between polling and results? We'll know a day after election day.
Nominee: Hal Heiner by 2%
Down Ticket Races:
Democratic candidate, and son of current Governor Steve Beashear, Andy Beshear is unopposed in the Democratic primary. The GOP nominee should be State Senator Whitney H. Westerfield who recently garnered an endorsement from the Lexington Herald Leader for the GOP.
Incumbent Adam Edelen is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. GOP candidate Mike Harmon is also unopposed.
Secretary of State:
Incumbent Alison Lundergan Grimes will win her party's nomination. GOP candidate Stephen L. Knipper is running unopposed.
This is the only dogfight in the down ticket races in 2015 as 5 candidates filed for the Democratic nomination and 3 for the GOP.
Current State Representative Rick Nelson (Bell and Harlan) has received a few notable endorsements from various labor unions and the only polling we have on this race shows Nelson winning the Democratic nomination. We will predict that Rick Nelson will win a squeaker on election day. We must add that The Rural Democrat is working on an investigation that may derail Nelson in the Fall if he is the Democratic nominee.
Mitch McConnell Staffer Allison Ball will likely win her party's nomination on election day. the only polling we have on a potential General election match-up is between Nelson and Ball with Ball winning by 2 percentage points.
It is anyone's guess who will the GOP nomination but we will give the edge to Republican State Rep Ryan Quarles. Jean-Marie Lawson Spann is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
Conclusion and Analysis:
It has been a very quiet primary election. The only notable fireworks is the allegations of abuse by GOP candidate James Comer during his college year's. We stated that it is too early to tell if it will kill his chances on the election but we will predict that due to the close nature of the race for the GOP hopefuls that it will be deciding factor in his defeat. If Comer had held onto his early polling lead by 10% or more it would have likely not been an issue on election day.
There is not much else to add to this boring election. So we will wait until the Summer when the General Election fireworks begin to launch into the blue Kentucky sky.