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Senator Mitch McConnell (R)

June 29, 2008

Will Presidential Coattails be in Play for the Senate Race?

We have a race in Kentucky for the U.S. Senate, even I am surprised by the fact that we KNOW we have a race so early. National pundits and a few state"ies" have been waving their ignorant banner for McConnell, notice I wrote ignorant, most of the national and even the state press have absolutely no idea what is going on in the trenches. A column in Courier Journal this morning barely mentioned the fact that we have a race for the U.S. Senate, but at least it was mentioned.

Now we mention the unmentionable, presidential coattails. Will Obama's likely defeat in the Bluegrass cost Lunsford a Senate seat? Or does Lunsford have a chance to counter? Obama will close the gap in Kentucky, but the big, big question is what will that gap be in November? McCain has a bad habit of saying something very stupid about once a month, will his mouth cost McConnell his seat?

Recent polling for the Senate race clearly shows that we have a "margin of error" race and that margin of error is clearly in Lunsford's corner. My analysis shows that Lunsford has a clear chance, but I can offer no explaination why Kentucky Moderates are holding static while Democrats and Louisville voters are sinking fast for McConnell.

So what is the magic coattail number? McCain victory by 10, 15, 20? I figure today that number is 13 percentage points, meaning: if McCain wins by more that 13 so does McConnell. But hopefully Lunsford quickly realizes he has a magic bullet in his pocket and that bullet is election year best friend today hypocrisy.

McCain will campaign against congressional earmarks in Kentucky, thats his theme and has been for years. McConnell's success is due to the fact that brings home the bacon. If he can expose the fact that McCain and McConnell hate eachothers guts to the mass of Kentuckians, his coattail number will drop. If it turns into a Republican kumbaya fest, good Democrats will stay home and or crossover. Lunsford has a chance to keep that from happening.  

June 22, 2008

McConnell's Approval Trend Confusing, but Dangerous for McConnell

I have crunched the numbers and they do and don't make sense. Senator Mitch McConnell (R) has enjoyed a relatively unmolested last term but a comprehensive analysis of his approval numbers, multiple month trends versus the latest SurveyUSA poll results suggest that the Democratic nominee, Bruce Lunsford, has a real shot.

Polls sometimes create a different reaction than a run-of-the-mill approval survey, but the shift in opinions and support in regards to May's approval ratings and June's SurveyUSA Senate poll is a head scratcher.

Mayjune08

The graph to the left really does not do my argument much justice, but take a look at the Democratic numbers, May approval was 45%, June's poll was 29%, no real surprise there. Louisville voters also turned on McConnell in the latest poll compared to May's approval ratings, a whopping 59% in May to 42% in June's poll. But Kentucky's most important idealogical group, Kentucky Moderates, seemed to have stayed put, in the mid-40's.

My experience tells me that when Democratic voters shift, along with a large percentage of Louisville voters, Moderates shift as a result of the mathematical relationship between the two fields. This time it does not. Why? Sampling maybe?

It can not be blamed on any large discrepancy between East/West May/June numbers, they are virtually the same between May and June. Even Pro-Life voters dropped a tad for McConnell in June. But I can not find a mathematical reason why the numbers for Moderates appear static.  

I did a decent job in the 07 primary and general elections handicapping the races using these methods of trends and comparing approvals to polling data, but the confusing and scary thing for Lunsford is the fact that with the dip in McConnell's Democratic support and support out of Louisville, Kentucky Moderates are staying put. He needs to garner at least 60% to 65% Moderate support to win.

The magic numbers for a Republican candidate is 25% Democratic, 85% to 90% Republican and 50% Independent. With Kentucky's overwhelming advantage in Democratic voter registration, the numbers above is what it takes for a Republican to win in Kentucky. At this point McConnell has the numbers, according to SurveyUSA's June polling; 29% Democratic, 87% Republican, and 52% Independent. But he is finally entering into the danger zone. Can Lunsford capitalize and push McConnell into the red?

 

May 13, 2008

Bruce Lunsford is Within Striking Distance of Mitch McConnell

The presumptive Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Bruce Lunsford is within striking distance of presumptive Republican nominee Senator Mitch McConnell.

A poll dubbed the Kentucky Poll conducted by WKYT and Lexington Herald Leader indicates that it really doesn't matter who the Democratic nominee is, both Greg Fischer and Bruce Lunsford are 12 percent down to McConnell. That percentage speaks volumes as many Kentuckians seem to be fed up with Senator McConnell and it appears a Democratic candidate with some major cash and support could give Mitch fits.

McConnell's approval rating is resting at 48% and his totals in respect to a theoretical challenger mirrors that total. His latest SurveyUSA approval rating was his second lowest ever at 46%. So the Kentucky Poll seems to be sound in that regard. McConnell's approval among Democrats is inching close to the dead zone, 26% of Kentucky Democrats approve of McConnell. A Republican candidate must garner at least 25% of the Democratic vote to win a statewide election in Kentucky.

April 29, 2008

Senator McConnell Approval Rating Second Lowest Ever

Even though Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell drew no opposition for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, his approval ratings are tanking. It confirms what I have been thinking; McConnell may be feeling the heat that all elected officials are feeling at the moment, the economy, gas prices, reverberations from a failed session of the Kentucky General Assembly (yea I know he is not a member, but in Kentucky a politician is a politician) and massive partisan bickering should all be considered factors why Senator Mitch McConnell's approval/disapproval rating is dead even at 46%.

  • Overall - (Second lowest)Approval 46% - Disapproval 46%
  • Republicans - (Lowest Ever) Approval 61% - Disapproval - 33%
  • Democrats - Approval 39% - Disapproval - 55%
  • Moderates -  (Tied Second lowest) Approval 40% - Disapproval - 52%
  • Western KY - (Third Lowest) Approval 48% - Disapproval - 46%

The big one is his slide with Kentucky Moderates over the past few months. Not good for McConnell seeing this group is Kentucky's largest voting block.

08mconmods

I have two theories why McConnell is experiencing a drop in his approval ratings across the board; all elected officials are experiencing the fallout from a frustrated public, in this case McConnell's slide does not benefit, say Bruce Lunsford, the presumptive Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate unless Lunsford pounces quickly and takes advantage of this opportunity. Second; he could be feeling the heat from some bad press and the attacks from the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate.

Either way McConnell could be vulnerable and it would be wise for Lunsford to dig into the piggy bank a little and maybe run an attack ad or two against McConnell as soon as the Democratic primary is over, risky, but a risk I would take. If he can cash in from sliding approval numbers via the first real poll for the Fall race, Lunsford could have McConnell on his heels in June and that is something no one would have predicted or even said was possible.

BUT his, for the most part, static approval/disapproval with Democrats must change, if he maintains a 30% or above approval rating with Kentucky Democrats, he will be almost impossible to beat.   

April 20, 2008

We Endorse The Lesser of the Two Evils, We Endorse Bruce Lunsford

The way I figure it, if we have a chance to defeat Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell why not go for it. I have had many conversations with many people but I have not spoken to the person I originally endorsed, Col. Andrew Horne, but I don't feel I need to.

I am not going to sing the praises of Bruce Lunsford and write about how good of an ole boy he is, facts are he has the cash to make McConnell sweat and that may be enough and may not. If you can't feed the bears and kiss the snakes, get out of the political forest and for all the remaining rebels out there, pretty much the entire Kentucky blogosphere, if you can't accept the lesser of the two evil principle as a means to motivate, go volunteer as a camp counselor or adopt a highway or some shit, get out of politics, especially Kentucky politics.

He should breeze through the primary, so I will not be doing much jumping up and down until the general. So go ahead, call me a bobble-head, sell out, hack, or make something up for all I care. We need to give it our best shot and defeat Mitch McConnell, maybe luck will be on our side.

February 08, 2008

WP Chris Cillizza Says Lunsford A Force?

Now the national pundits are smelling a U.S. Senate race in Kentucky and are yet again ignoring the best candidate, a candidate that can unite the Democratic party and defeat U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell (R). Washington Post blogger Chris Cillizza says Lunsford is a problem candidate but will likely have the support of the state and national Democrats, huh?.

It is confirmed and written in blood; money will dictate that the state Democratic party quietly support perennial candidate Bruce Lunsford. I had been a hold out for a few weeks in regards to that form of thinking, but now it is clear. Hopefully we don't have official party Democrats meddling in this primary.

Even if officials from the KDP stay out of this race, as they should, the perception will be they are involved and scare away vital support and endorsements for Horne. 

January 22, 2008

McConnell Gets his Revenge

I am truly disgusted and horrified. Lets see how far this goes.

BlueGrassRoots has the best plan, I was told that MSNBC ran the story early this morning.

January 17, 2008

Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) May be In Big Trouble This Time

This is yet another example of McConnell's apparent willingness to deny good Americans, and veterans, their right to free speech. We are at war and I have been there, I know the fear, the anxiety and now have a best friend in the belly of the beast, I am also GOD Father to his 4 children.

This is an insane example of what can happen when leaders are willing to deny their employees their right to free speech and their right to peaceful assembly. These accusations toward the Republican Minority Leader could in fact bring the all powerful oz to his knees. It is always a wee child that is the most dangerous, from King Herod to Senator McConnell, history always seems to repeat itself because those in power are blinded, thus they they fall into the pit, this time he may not escape.

This situation is particularly disturbing, the allegations may prove that Senator McConnell (R-KY) has no problem destroying a mother, the wife of a service member at war, veteran and a family. If he would do this to her and her family, he would do it to anyone.

(Visit this story on the DailyKos and recommend it)

If you've received this e-mail it's because you received my previous e-mail entitled, "A Day in the Life of a Crazed KY Dem".  The astonishing turn of events over the past 24 hours has forced me to write this follow-up.  If you remember, my opening line from the previous e-mail was, "You'll laugh, you'll cry, you'll wish you were me ..."  Okay, belay my last (for you Navy folks).  After reading this follow up, you may laugh, you may cry, but you most assuredly will NOT wish you were me!

After burning the midnight oil writing the story of my day, January 15, 2008, the clouds parted, the world seemed brighter and I felt as though I could never again sleep because of the excitement.  Wow, what a day.  Confronting arguably the most powerful Republican elected official in the world about the war in Iraq, being arrogantly blown off by him, being manhandled by his security detachment (one of whom scolded my child), and getting it all on tape.  As a Political Scientist, it simply doesn't get any better than that.  Well, perhaps it does, but politically speaking, I have never experienced anything better.

The elation from last night has since turned to trepidation and perhaps a tinge of outright fear.  Little did I know the firestorm that was about to ensue.  Apparently, yours truly, "The Little Vet Who Could", and her pre-teen daughter “The Little Girl Who Did”, rattled the Senator to such a degree that we were the subject of great discussion during Senator McConnell's exclusive fund-raising event in Western Kentucky, towards which he laid rubber out of my theater's alley to attend.  Yet, the fun didn't stop there.  Little did I know, we were also the topic of discussion at many other emergency meetings throughout this tiny town of 25,000 on this cold, blustery Paducah day, January 16, 2008.

Within the past 24 hours, tens of millions of dollars in funding for all programs previously promised from the Federal Government to our fair city's River Front Revitalization Program have suddenly been moved into the "uncertain column"; at least until the city fathers can prove that crazy rabble rouser "Heather Ryan" is not associated with their programs/organizations.  That's right ladies and gentlemen, in no uncertain terms, I've been informed that my little "escapade" in videotaping the Senate Minority Leader has suddenly put Paducah Pork on the chopping block in Mr. McConnell's book should me and my silly little girl remain in the forefront of Paducah Politics.  Last night, at a dinner attended by my superior, myself, my husband, and my daughter Heaven, I was informed that if I did not cease my political activities in Paducah I would LOSE MY JOB.

I have to admit, it took me a while to process.  I just didn't get it.  What the hell did I do that was so vile, that was so horrid, that would make the Senator so angry that he would personally ensure that my job is in jeopardy?   What would make him threaten the powers that be that projects aimed to benefit upwards of 50,000 constituents in the Western Kentucky area were two seconds away from dying a pathetic, undignified death in the waste basket of a Senate Committee yet to be determined?  Then, a wise friend enlightened me.  I had him on tape, ignoring a little girl who wanted to know if he wanted to kill her active duty dad in Iraq, ducking into his security guard’s waiting SUV and covering his face, as if I were some putrid, stinking piece of crap that didn't deserve a minute of his time.  Is it possible that this amateur video, shot with my own shaking hand, could bring down the Senate Minority Leader?  As unreal as the possibility may be, the thought of him losing his powerful job loomed large enough for him to put out the word that I need to lose mine.  So, if you heard an enormous sucking sound coming from Western Kentucky this morning, it was the sound of the puckered lips of frightened people here as they inhaled deeply, held their breath and put distance between themselves and me and my crazy pink-haired daughter.

Chalk this up as the absolutely most bizarre experience of my relatively young life.  On Monday morning I was but a mere Executive Director of an independent movie theater in Downtown Paducah.  My husband, a full time student at the local law school and I rake in slightly more than the median Western Kentucky income of $25,000 a year.  I am truly a nobody in the grand scheme of things.  Yet, once my daughter and I put into practice our First Amendment right to question our senior Senator about his intentions in Iraq, I am deemed public enemy #1.  What the hell is happening here?  Is this still America or did I fall asleep and someone moved my family and our pathetic little two bedroom mobile dwelling to Nazi Germany?  Since when in America can a Senator be frightened so much by a child and her mother that he threatens to ruin her life and/or the lives of 50,000 people in her community, should she continue saying whatever in the hell she desires? 

I'm Speechless folks.  A first for me, indeed.  Speechless and sadly, most likely, soon to be Jobless.  I hope you understand the gravity of this matter.  The most powerful Republican in the world is effectively attempting to destroy the lives of a veteran mother and her family because she was bold enough to ask the question we all want to know, "What are you hiding Mitch?".  I can tell you what I will be hiding, the original video tape.  And I’ll tell you what I won’t be hiding.  The copies.

January 16, 2008

Complaint coming against Democratic Senate Candidate Greg Fischer?

Page One has posted repeated examples of potential wrong doing by NOW Democratic Candidate for the U.S. Senate Greg Fischer (D). Jake knows the FEC game and I find it hard to believe his posts are pure fluff.

Exhibit A

From Page One

He says he hasn’t made up his mind about running for the United States Senate but an email Greg Fischer sent to tons of people on December 24, 2007 suggests otherwise. In the message, sent from Fischer’s Dant Clayton corporate email account, he sends a plea for finance staff. Young, old, experienced, inexperienced, it doesn’t matter to him. We won’t waste time pointing out to Fischer that an experienced finance team is crucial.

What we will point out, though, is that conducting campaign business via a corporate email account on corporate equipment is a violation of campaign finance law. That sort of activity? It’s considered a corporate contribution and doesn’t fly with the FEC.

Exhibit B

From Page One

This time he is registering domain names via his LLC, Iceberg Ventures, while using an employee of his corporation, Dant Clayton, as the administrative contact for his websites. Utilizing his LLC to do work for his campaign is fine, as long as it is reported to the FEC as an in-kind contribution that does not exceed $1,000. But using an employee of his corporation as an administrative contact for a campaign site? That’s an illegal corporate contribution. The only way to get around it is for his campaign to pay the corporation for its services and to reimburse the employee’s wages. But there’s a problem with that– Greg Fischer hasn’t officially announced his candidacy, so paying for services or receiving contributions at this point doesn’t jive with FEC regulations and campaign finance laws.

You have to be very careful when dealing with campaign finance and or any campaign law, especially the FEC. Greg Fischer is being pimped by someone influential, most say Louisville's wealthy Brown family, but I am a conspiracy buff and so I believe someone else is lurking in the shadows. I have never seen a political nobody become and instant viable candidate. Even former Kentucky Secretary of State John Y. Brown III (D) kissed Fischer's ass today, for the record I like JYBIII and think he is a great guy.

We have a candidate like Col. Andrew Horne (D) that can take it to McConnell, Horne has instant credibility and we all should be getting behind him. Fischer will get ripped in the Kentucky blogosphere over the course of the Democratic primary, it will not be pretty.

I am not stomping on Fischer in regards to how he makes a living, every man must take pride in their work but DAMN, we have a war veteran and a former Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel compared to a potato chip stuffing - stale ass snickers bar salesman.

I guess Fischer gets an "alleged" breaking the law pass because he has money, you know it is only a potential minor violation. No way it could be worse than noodling out of season.

 

January 15, 2008

Crowley Drinks the McConnell Push Poll Koolaid

I am disappointed in Pat Crowley, he certainly did not do his homework on this push poll by Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY). BlueGrassRoots summed it up the best (HERE). When journaists say to me, "I don't entertain internal polling as fact" and you know who you are, not Crowley by the way, it makes me think maybe they don't.

When a reputal journalist like Crowley makes statements like "KY U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell has a new poll that shows he would trounce any opponents." It makes me wonder how fast he typed it up and clicked the send button. Slow down Pat; you know you can delete those screwed up threads you repeat sometimes, not being a jerk, just letting you know.


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