New Line for the 2010 US Senate Race in Kentucky

I will continuously updating this page as the situation changes and it will change.

Line for the 2010 US Senate Race in Kentucky

Line: As of today 1/17/09 -Potential Democratic Primary

2 to 1 or 50% chance that Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo wins over the Democratic field in a potential Democratic primary in Kentucky in 2010.

• Poll -Mongiardo up 9% in a potential match-up with Bunning
• Survey -Mongiardo up 13% in Eastern Kentucky
• Press - Mongiardo has right of first refusal

5 to 1 or 20% chance that Atty. General Jack Conway wins over the Democratic field in a potential Democratic primary in Kentucky in 2010.

• Poll - Conway up 3% in a potential match-up with Bunning
• Survey - Conway down -13% in Eastern Kentucky

7 to 1 or 14.29% chance that State Auditor Crit Luallen wins over the Democratic field in a potential Democratic primary in Kentucky in 2010.

Poll - Luallen DOWN by -3% in a potential match-up with Bunning

 

50 to 1 or 2% chance that Darlene Fitzgerald Price wins over the Democratic field in a potential Democratic primary in Kentucky in 2010.

 

Other potential Democratic candidates

US Rep. Ben Chandler (will not seek Democratic nomination as of 1/17/09)

Bruce Lunsford (will not seek Democratic nomination as of 1/17/09)

Republican

Incumbent Senator Jim Bunning as of today has a 100% chance of winning the 2010 Republican primary for US Senate.

Primary - 1 to 1 or 100% chance of winning

General - 4 to 1 chance or 25% chance of defeating front runner Daniel Mongiardo

General - 2 to 1 chance of defeating Jack Conway

General - 1 to 1.25 chance of defeating Crit Luallen

Other potential Republican candidates and odds

 

Theoretical odds

1.5 to 1 chance or 66% chance Secretary of State Trey Grayson would defeat Incumbent Senator Jim Bunning in a potential Republican primary

4 to 1 or a 25% chance that Trey Grayson would defeat Democratic front runner Daniel Mongiardo in a potential general election

3 to 1 or 33% chance that Trey Grayson would defeat Jack Conway in a potential general election

2 to 1 or 50% chance that Trey Grayson would defeat Crit Luallen in a potential general election

Fund Raising ($3 million)

1. Daniel Mongiardo - highest fund raising potential (75% chance of $3 million+)
2. Jack Conway (50% chance of $3 million+)
3. Trey Grayson (Theoretical) (50% chance of $3 million+)
4. Jim Bunning (25% chance of $3 million)
5. Crit Luallen (20% chance of $3 million)