The Rural Democrat

McConnell's Approval Trend Confusing, but Dangerous for McConnell

I have crunched the numbers and they do and don't make sense. Senator Mitch McConnell (R) has enjoyed a relatively unmolested last term but a comprehensive analysis of his approval numbers, multiple month trends versus the latest SurveyUSA poll results suggest that the Democratic nominee, Bruce Lunsford, has a real shot.

Polls sometimes create a different reaction than a run-of-the-mill approval survey, but the shift in opinions and support in regards to May's approval ratings and June's SurveyUSA Senate poll is a head scratcher.

The graph to the left really does not do my argument much justice, but take a look at the Democratic numbers, May approval was 45%, June's poll was 29%, no real surprise there. Louisville voters also turned on McConnell in the latest poll compared to May's approval ratings, a whopping 59% in May to 42% in June's poll. But Kentucky's most important idealogical group, Kentucky Moderates, seemed to have stayed put, in the mid-40's.

My experience tells me that when Democratic voters shift, along with a large percentage of Louisville voters, Moderates shift as a result of the mathematical relationship between the two fields. This time it does not. Why? Sampling maybe?

It can not be blamed on any large discrepancy between East/West May/June numbers, they are virtually the same between May and June. Even Pro-Life voters dropped a tad for McConnell in June. But I can not find a mathematical reason why the numbers for Moderates appear static.  

I did a decent job in the 07 primary and general elections handicapping the races using these methods of trends and comparing approvals to polling data, but the confusing and scary thing for Lunsford is the fact that with the dip in McConnell's Democratic support and support out of Louisville, Kentucky Moderates are staying put. He needs to garner at least 60% to 65% Moderate support to win.

The magic numbers for a Republican candidate is 25% Democratic, 85% to 90% Republican and 50% Independent. With Kentucky's overwhelming advantage in Democratic voter registration, the numbers above is what it takes for a Republican to win in Kentucky. At this point McConnell has the numbers, according to SurveyUSA's June polling; 29% Democratic, 87% Republican, and 52% Independent. But he is finally entering into the danger zone. Can Lunsford capitalize and push McConnell into the red?

 

Supreme Court Says Indiana Voter ID Law OK

I have studied this issue until I am numb. During my tenure as Bruce Hendrickson's campaign manager we pushed for a voter ID during the Democratic primary and guess what, he won the Democratic primary for Secretary of State while pushing a very, very partisan issue. Not a Democratic battle cry but a Republican one, we tried to avoid pandering to any one idealogical group and it worked. We backed off the voter ID, only to lose to Trey Grayson in the Fall. But on the flip-side, if the Republican candidate appears more liberal than the Democratic candidate, we would have lost all the same.

Indiana has some of he toughest voting laws in the United States and the United States Supreme Court says their tough Voter ID law is OK. Hendrickson had a plan to avoid the disenfranchisement that could accompany a Voter ID law, the elderly and poor would have been eligible for a free state ID card, thus eliminating the number one argument against the law. But partisan bickering has polarized this issue to the point that no viable Democratic candidate will ever push it, ever again, unless we get another Hendrickson, that I doubt seriously, candidates like him come once every 50 years. Grayson needs to thank his lucky stars, every damn day.

Voter fraud happens and it happens more often that what is reported. Especially in Southeastern Kentucky. But as long as this issue remains a wedge issue between the parties, Kentucky will never eliminate voter fraud; and it is sad that such issues become partisan because of minority fears. BUT to defend my party, Republicans benefit from smaller voter turnouts and tougher voter laws could suppress the vote, but that argument is supported by no data. Political arguments and partisan warfare are usually not supported by sound statistical analysis but by emotion.

Does Kentucky need tougher voter laws or do we need a relaxing of the laws on the books? I suspect as we analyze Secretary of State Trey Grayson's (R) tenure in the office we will find that he will have accomplished very little in the realm of voting law. The trick is to increase voter turnout while eliminating voting fraud, not easy. Kentucky needs a system for early voting, a voter receipt and possibly a voter ID. But until the Democratic party relaxes their partisan fears in regards to a voter ID card, you will never see that in Kentucky.

Legislative Report Card: Rep. Leslie Combs, Rep. Scott Alexander

I have to admit that I do not know Rep. Leslie Combs (D) or Rep. Scott Alexander (D) well enough to offer any personal opinions. But as we said before in the Legislative Report Card for Rep. Rick Nelson (D), everyone gets some blame for the complete disaster that will be remembered as the 2008 Regular Session of the Kentucky General Assembly.

Our region, Southeastern Kentucky, is destitute and desperate for opportunities. Any legislator that plays the game of petty politics or panders to inter-party factions, Democratic or Republican will be blamed if they stand against regional opportunities for Frankfort political gain. Rep. Leslie Combs and Rep. Scott Alexander both are guilty of either being totally incompetent in their review of HB136 or they voted along party, or inter-party faction lines.

HB136 would have provided an infusion of much needed cash for projects that would have virtually completed a much needed industrial park in Bell County. Progress for Bell County benefits Harlan, Perry, Knox, Whitley and Clay. The number one problem we have in this region is regionalism and county isolationism, we have no concept of the meaning of the word team.

Opportunity for Southeastern Kentucky comes in gaps in years and we missed a golden opportunity with HB136 no matter what political party or faction was pushing it. I am not buying the excuse that "I didn't know" or "we didn't look at it close enough". Take a look at the voting history, it appears it was not a partisan vote but more of a faction vote or a regional vote. Confusion and probably incompetence resulted in this missed opportunity. No matter the good done elsewhere, our region missed out and our people continue to suffer.

GRADE F

Trey Grayson Attacks Governor Beshear

Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) is gearing up for a run for Governor, you can take that to the bank. He is already producing live sketches attacking Governor Steve Beshear (D). Grayson reportedly issued the Democratic Governor a political report card at the Northern Kentucky's Lincoln Day dinner last night. Pol Watchers has his speech (here).

Governor Beshear has had a horrible start and now has to peddle up hill to gain any political momentum and only has one more budget session to get it right. The way I figure it is he has a small window of time to reinvent himself or his administration, I am done being nice about it. I will predict that a few in the Democratic party will be beating their heads against the wall for not working harder to elect Bruce Hendrickson and snuffing out Grayson when they had the chance. He will be a monster by 2011.

RPK Files and Complaint and the KDP Responds

Just like the hillbilly voice in one of the BFF political ads said "there he goes again", RPK boss Steve Robertson files and extensive complaint against the Bluegrass Freedom Fund and the Beshear/Mongiardo campaign. I read the entire complaint and expect this to be over with soon.

Kentucky Democratic Party Chair Jennifer Moore responds to this ridiculous complaint.

FRANKFORT – Kentucky Democratic Party Chair Jennifer Moore released the following statement regarding the complaint filed today with the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance by the Republican Party of Kentucky: 

"This is a desperate and baseless attack by the Republican Party. The complaint makes accusations that have been proven false time and time again. Doesn't Steve Robertson have anything better to do with his time these days? 

"What a sad example of Republicans playing divisive political games rather than working with Democrats to better the lives of Kentuckians."

KDP Vice-Chair Smith meets with Clinton

Co-Chairperson of the Kentucky Democratic Party Nathan Smith had a sit down with Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) today at Cincinnati State Technical and Community College. Clinton had Smith front row at a campaign speech. Cincinnati lawyer Stan Chesley, Clinton staffer and a party money guy, attended the event.

Beshear Administration Deny Involvement In Horne Withdraw

Well folks there you have it, a 100% official denial from the Beshear administration. Governor Steve Beshear's Chief of Staff and current GOLD Director, Jim Cauley, has officially denied they had anything to do with Col. Andrew Horne's withdraw from the U.S Senate Democratic primary.

From the Lexington Herald Leader

Jim Cauley, Beshear's chief of staff, said Horne asked for a meeting with the governor Monday afternoon and it lasted "10 or 15 minutes."

"Andrew made his decision all by himself with no encouragement from us," Cauley said. "The governor told Andrew there would be other opportunities."

As for Horne's reasons, "you'd have to ask Andrew," he said.

Also a DSCC spokesperson says they also had nothing to do with Horne's withdraw.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which Lunsford said played a big role in talking him into the race, also denied putting pressure on Horne.

"No, we have never urged anyone not to run for the seat. Our goal all along has been to encourage opposition to McConnell," said Matt Miller, DSCC spokesman.

The truth is out there and the people that were involved with his campaign, like myself, really does know the truth. I am sifting through everything and will follow the lead of Col. Horne. He is not talking and appears to be isolating himself from the Senate race altogether.

I am not sure if Horne will ever actually tell his side of the story, but when and if he does the progressive blogosphere will be waiting. This makes my skin crawl but and I will follow Horne's lead on another note, I will boycott the U.S. Senate election unless something drastically changes. I call on all progressive bloggers to boycott this Democratic primary, or get behind a so called X candidate, a candidate that appears to have no chance. This is our time to protest.

UPDATED: 84th House District Special Election, Well Sort of

UPDATE 7:45PM: Former State Rep. Scott Alexander is the Democratic nominee for the House District 84 special election to be held on March 3rd. But it looks like the Republicans will not field a candidate and former state Rep. Alexander will be current Rep. Alexander for the next 10 months.

The 84th House District seat is empty and now someone has to fill that seat. The Democratic Party in Perry County and officials from the State Party will meet tonight to decide who will run on March 3rd to fill the vacant house seat.

Former state Rep. Chester Jones, Perry County Democrat Chair, was still a potential candidate as of Friday. Benny Ray Bailey JR is also bidding for the nomination. And last but not least, Former state Rep. Scott Alexander is the rumored front runner for the nomination.

The "Well Sort of" included in the post heading means this; The RPK had no idea or no comment in regards to a potential Republican candidate for the special election for the 84th House District. Certain RPK insiders says they will not run a candidate. So tonight's meeting of Democratic Party Officials will likely decide who the 84th District House Representative will be and the front runner is Scott Alexander.

WP Chris Cillizza Says Lunsford A Force?

Now the national pundits are smelling a U.S. Senate race in Kentucky and are yet again ignoring the best candidate, a candidate that can unite the Democratic party and defeat U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell (R). Washington Post blogger Chris Cillizza says Lunsford is a problem candidate but will likely have the support of the state and national Democrats, huh?.

It is confirmed and written in blood; money will dictate that the state Democratic party quietly support perennial candidate Bruce Lunsford. I had been a hold out for a few weeks in regards to that form of thinking, but now it is clear. Hopefully we don't have official party Democrats meddling in this primary.

Even if officials from the KDP stay out of this race, as they should, the perception will be they are involved and scare away vital support and endorsements for Horne. 

Beshear Mixes a Little Sunshine with the Budget Gloom

Governor Steve Beshear (D) addressed our Commonwealth's budget concerns and while some are relieved, others may not have received that project or money for a particular project. My main concern was primary education and it deserved to be spared the rod and was. Hopefully the General Assembly can work together for a longterm solution for our Commonwealth's financial problems. We need a steady revenue stream and while I am a proponent to solutions like expanded gaming, casinos are not best solution for longterm success. Our children and the industries they will hopefully be employed by is the longterm solution, casinos would give us an opportunity to accelerate the rebuilding of our infrastructure. It is all about moving forward faster. 

From the Kentucky Democratic Party

Tonight, Governor Steve Beshear spoke strong, honest words to the General Assembly and to the people of Kentucky concerning the state's financial health and his plans for a responsible budget.

In spite of an unprecedented financial situation inherited by Governor Beshear, he has been able to create new opportunities for Kentucky - north, south, east and west.

• He protected from budget cuts Kindergarten through the 12th grade for all public schools.
• He protected the 722,000 Kentuckians who receive Medicaid coverage.
• He maintained the coal severance tax for coal counties.
• He protected the tobacco settlement fund.
• He added $50 million for higher education's "Bucks for Brains," which by law goes primarily to the University of Kentucky and the University of Louisville but also goes to all other state universities in Kentucky.
• He provided funds for expansion of the Little Sandy Corrections Complex.
• He is funding restoration of the Glasgow State Nursing Facility.

In some areas of the budget, Gov. Beshear is pushing to restore programs the previous Governor vetoed:  For example:

• Lake Malone State Park
• Louisville Zoo
• Pikeville Medical Center
• Animal shelters in many sections of the state
• Brooklawn Child and Family Services
• Murray State University Chemistry Building
• Carrollton Campus  of Jefferson Community Technical College
• Licking Valley Campus of Maysville CTC
• Advanced technology center of Owensboro CTC
• Rowan County Campus CTC planning/design

Other projects have been opened up by Gov. Beshear for Western Kentucky University, the University of Kentucky, Eastern State University, the Council of Postsecondary Education, Department of Parks and the Kentucky River Authority.

Despite hundreds of millions of dollars unavailable as had been expected for the next two years, Gov. Beshear gave the General Assembly a budget that continues essential services and programs. To compensate for anticipated losses in revenues he has ordered belt tightening for all state agencies.

As he said, "When families get into financial trouble, they buy less, cut up their credit cards and balance their checkbooks.  State government must do no less."

Sincerely,

Jennifer A. Moore, Chair
Kentucky Democratic Party