The Rural Democrat

Keeling says Bill for Slots is a Long Shot

Keeling sites polling that says Kentuckians want to vote on expanded gaming, but Stumbo seems to be on to something in regards to his claim that the General Assembly can approve slots without a constitutional amendment. Keeling also says that Stumbo's argument that slots can be classified as a common gambling device, like a lottery card, is ridiculous, so I guess Stumbo's argument may not work, even though it may be legal. But he brings up the a real important question; will the Kentucky horse industry survive?

In these hard economic times I can see why some people will damn the thought of expanded gambling but if we stand idle and do nothing, our racetracks will be history in a few short years. I will try and obtain some numbers, if those numbers are available, in regards to the number of folks leaving our tracks for more lucrative opportunities in states that have already approved slots at the tracks.    

Tune in to Kentucky Tonight: Beshear, Stumbo and Williams

This should be fun; we have Governor Beshear, House Speaker Stumbo and Senate President Williams appearing on Kentucky Tonight with Bill Goodman, 8:00PM on KET.\

 I am sure slots at tracks will likely be the issue Williams will push tonight. Hopefully Beshear takes control and the issue of a higher cigarette and alcohol tax is the main issue of the night. We may do a little live blogging tonight, I am still recovering from a great AC/DC concert last night, last time we will see those guys, they are set to retire after this tour. I will post some media of that concert later.

Expanded Gaming will go the State Senate Say Hoover

Amazingly it appears that expanded gaming, slots at tracks, will pass the house, or so says the Minority Leader Jeff Hoover. I believe we have to secure the future of the horse racing industry in Kentucky, now. And I also believe the only way that will happen is to expanded the track's gaming operations. Other states are doing it as we speak.

But we are experiencing an economic recession, the public backlash could be.....

Governor Beshear Makes a Bold Move Against Online Gambling, Tribal Sovernty Not In Play

The political hot potato, that being Tribal sovernty and the rights of Indian Nations to do what they please is NOT in play. Commonwealth of Kentucky lawyers want 141 on-line gambling domains seized. The Franklin County Circuit Court is set to rule on the validity of the domain seizers tomorrow. I expect Judge Wingate to rule in favor of the domain holders not the Commonwealth but this may set precedence that will eventually force regulations in regards to on-line gambling.

But this situation goes a little deeper, the Mohawk Council of Kahnawake, which controls the Kahnawake Gaming Commission, operates the only servers in North American that hosts the majority of on-line gambling operations. The Mohawk Council of Kahnawake is located in Canada and Canadian authorities have said on the record that the Kahnawake Gaming Commission operates their servers illegally but has been reluctant to act on the ruling due to the sensitive political nature of Indian relations in Canada. It was just a matter of time before someone challenged the legality of the Kahnawake Gaming Commission's authority to issue licenses or permits to operate on-line gambling operations on their reservation in Canada. Hopefully the Commonwealth's lawyers used this opinion in their case, it creates an avenue to get what they want.

This is a very progressive move by Governor Beshear and his General Council. And already some righty bloggers are trying spin this situation. This situation IS NOT a matter of Indian rights its a matter of right and wrong. The Commonwealth of Kentucky has every right to protect their citizens and maybe this situation will help motivate our government to regulate on-line gambling. There are no rules, no guidelines for odds for on-line gambling. So in reality these on-line gambling operations are no better than your local bookie system. You will never win. 

So let the emails rain, I have already heard from some claiming to be members of the Mohawks of Kahnawá:ke Nation blasting Governor Beshear and trying to convince me to organize an effort to condemn Beshear in the name of Kentucky's Indian people. No dice guys, I stand behind Governor Beshear on this one. And quite ironically their own website declares that the Mohawk Council of Kahnawake, the governing body the Nation, is NOT recognized by a large percentage of their members to be their governing body. So let them try and take on the Commonwealth of Kentucky.  

Governor Beshear's First Session a Failure

Times have changed, the days of loyalty to your Governor is over, no matter how important the issues. This session is a complete failure on many fronts, most notably it will be considered a failure and a black X for Governor Beshear's first year in office. The buck stops with him and he must bear the brunt of the criticism.

• Casinos: A 30 day into the session proposal probably is the single most important reason the measure failed. The horse racing industry and the politics surrounding the number of guaranteed gaming facilities at the tracks was a catalyst to delay, obstruct, and ultimately destroy the proposed legislation. It was an orchestrated obstruction of this legislation and it ultimately damaged the relationship between the horsie set and the Governor. Without that team, Casinos will only be a discussion not a reality, ever.
• The Budget: A miserable session and the sweeping cuts issued by Governor Beshear before the session set the stage for a budget that is both anemic and porous. But some legislators managed to get their all important project money during an election year while the mentally retarded and the poor will certainly suffer the consequences of a bleak 2 year budget. But no sweeping vetoes were issued by Beshear in regards to those cuts, so it is business as usual.
• Pension Reform: Beshear is caught in the vortex of damed-if-you-do and damned-if-you-don't in regards to how to lead the charge for his pet legislation. If he does too little he is called out on the floor for not being a leader and if he does too much he is kicked backed into the mansion in a fury by turf protecting legislators. So it is no surprise that pension reform died on the floor.
• Ethics Reform: Shot full of holes and useless, of course dead in the water.
• 70 cent cigarette tax increase: The only time during this session when the press sided with the Governor and praised his leadership was during the debacle of the 70 cent increase in the cigarette tax. But our childish legislative body proved the accusations of being immature obstructionists by pitching a fit at the thought of raising that tax by that amount. Why? It is an election year for many legislators and raising ANY tax can be used against them, EVEN though the majority of the Commonwealth approved of the tax increase. Amazing.

So all of Governor Steve Beshear's initiatives have been killed and nothing of substance has passed this unproductive session of the Kentucky General Assembly. Now the blood bath begins; Stumbo will likely challenge Richards for the top spot in the House and the question everyone will be asking is; will Stumbo seek Beshear's help. I would suspect Beshear to have nothing to do with that, if he is smart. But Stumbo should make his move, even though I was critical of him during the 2007 gubernatorial primary I will support that move, if only for the reason that he would stand up to King David Williams.

Now we wait for a probable extraordinary session of the Kentucky General Assembly. Does Beshear call that session and attempt to flex his executive muscles or does he fall into damage control and prepare for 2010? It will be interesting how he recovers from this terrible session and any Beshear supporter who thinks recovery is not needed, is a fool.   

Will These Secret Budget Negotiations Produce Fruit?

We know we need revenue and we had an opportunity to inject a massive amount of new revenue into the Commonwealth's economy with expanded gaming, but we failed to realize the importance of that strategic plan. Now we have a few choices, yes I am still pounding my shoe on the table about those three choices, casinos, higher taxes, or cut services.

Now it does not matter how many ways you stack crap, at the end of the day it is only stacked crap. This oil painting budget is only a pretty picture of political spin, not a viable budget that will create opportunity for this Commonwealth. The House has the better of the two budget plans, the Senate being the obvious nemesis here. Even with a 25% increase in the cigarette tax it will create revenue, the Senate's plan in regards to a rearrangement in lottery revenues is that classic funny money approach, a political ploy for an election year. Many on the Senate can stand and say "we did not raise taxes" while it will cause cruel hardships on many Kentuckians by not entertaining a higher cigarette tax. It is classic bull shit politics.

The responsible thing to do for this Commonwealth is a massive increase in the cigarette tax, 50 cents or higher and to add tolls to any new mega-project that would require more than $200 million in state funding. That is not creative math, that is simple logic in these tough financial times. Even if it costs our tax payers a few dollars more for a special session, Governor Beshear should outright veto any state budget that does not raise the cigarette tax significantly, also he should slash the House's sneaky 5% increase as well.

Now it is time for Governor Beshear to become an unmovable force of leadership, a responsible general that does not care about reelection in 2011. He needs to stand firm and gather support from both chambers and stand with that support in the face of King David, Rep. Harry "funny money" Moberly and House Speaker Jody Richards and get a budget that is responsible. 

Casinos in Kentucky Are Officially Dead

Again the Kentucky General Assembly refuses to listen to the people and allow a vote for and or against casinos in Kentucky. Governor Beshear has conceded the casino issue in 2008. It is not a victory for any opposition group or any one group of legislators. It is another example of a dysfunctional legislative body and its willingness to allow egos and petty politics to dictate the future of our Commonwealth.

No one can blame Governor Beshear for what is to come, being higher taxes and or massive cuts in services, he tried. If I would have had his ear at the start, I would have begged him to bury the enabling legislation and concentrate on the ballot initiative. But the Commonwealth needed the cash sooner than later, now the Commonwealth gets nothing. 

Governor Beshear Showing Fiscal Responsibility toward Mega-projects

The Kentucky Conservative ideology is flawed, they want to spend bucks we don't have on projects that cost huge bucks. They ridicule the responsible notion that we may have to play catch up to the rest of the nation and stop Kentucky from being a smoker's paradise by adding 70 cents to our behind the times cigarette tax. Casino gaming would have provided a start, not a long term solution. It would have been nice to have an extra billion in the next 2 to 3 years to play with, to fund projects that could provide a boost to our dilapidated economy.

Governor Steve Beshear (D) met with Louisville's Mayor Jerry Abramson (D) and Senate President David Williams (R) today and expressed a responsible concern for the the two mega-projects being considered in Louisville. We pay taxes that keep our cops on the road, keeps the mechanism of government moving. A "use-it" "Tax-it" mentality may be the only way to go, considering Kentucky's thin possibilities for generating more revenue to keep Kentucky moving forward. A toll is not a tax, it is a users fee for driving across a bridge, it pays for itself, what a great concept. But the ridiculous and absolutely ass-backwards conservative mentality in the state is laughable. Can anyone call U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers (R) a conservative? He spends cash like its his job. My state representative Charlie Siler (R) has voted for damn near every single tax increase that has hit the House floor for the past 25 years. 

Beshear did not say he wanted tolls, but I agree all options should be on thrown on the table. Williams would rather dictate and demand rather than negotiate. I would expect Williams to continue his resistance toward the notion that we need to provide money for these projects in a manner that is responsible. I expect Williams to start slinging snot anytime now. Just wait for it.

Pol Watchers

FRANKFORT -- Gov. Steve Beshear urged state lawmakers Wednesday to negotiate on the details of a House bill that could pave the way for using tolls to fund mega transportation projects, such as two new bridges in Louisville.

He said he hopes this legislative session will not end without a funding mechanism in place for such projects.

Beshear's comments came after he met privately in his office with Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson. He had met earlier behind closed doors with Senate President David Williams, R-Burkesville.

Beshear said Abramson and he urged Williams to form a conference committee of lawmakers from both chambers to discuss House Bill 689. But, so far, "the Senate leadership is reluctant to do anything on this issue."

Ellis: This is the Worst Session Anyone Can Recall

Let the flood of media discontent begin over arguably the worst session of the Kentucky General Assembly in recent memory. Ronnie Ellis is the setup man for the media assassination to come for Governor Steve Beshear (D) in the coming weeks. Lawmakers are using language such as; terrible, awful and disaster in regards to the Commonwealth's budget and we might as well prepare for a special session to complete that budget.

Governor Steve Beshear (D) is standing with his chest stuck out waiting on the media to fire away for his attempt to create a steady revenue stream for our destitute Commonwealth and while everyone wants to stomp on the Governor, I have yet to hear ONE viable alternative in regards to creating more revenue. Of course we could raise taxes, cut everything but our hair but it seems to be business as usual in the Kentucky General Assembly. I would use the following language to describe the pathetic showing of our elected representatives; inept, leaderless, spineless, disrespectful, shortsighted, shallow and in the Senate; just plain scared to death of King David Williams. While I did not agree with Beshear's final showing for casinos in Kentucky, as believe it will ultimately add more volatile fuel to an almost out of control fire, I understand his resolve.

The Governor's staff are blaming House Democrats and House Democrats are blaming the Governor. Someone not only dropped the ball preparing for this session, which was supposed to have been the single most important thing in their lives at that moment, they have put Governor Beshear firmly behind the 8 ball. But at the end of the day, the buck stops at the Governor's desk. Todays approval ratings are meaningless because of the massive Republican oversampling, but Beshear's drop among Kentucky Moderates, 16 point drop to be exact, is scary considering they can make you or break you in Kentucky.

Is Governor Beshear's New Push for Casinos Worth the Risk?

I take pride in the delusion that I seem to know a little bit about politics. I helped steer a wounded Judge Executive whom everyone left for dead through one of the toughest Harlan primary elections ever in 2002 and worked myself into an early grave in Bruce Hendrickson's remarkable victory in last year's Democratic primary for Secretary of State and I wish I would have stayed for the long haul.

Boring you with my paper thin political resume has a purpose, it will hopefully invoke political thought in what I am writing here, a deeper level than usual. Governor Steve Beshear (D) is preparing to unveil a new plan in regards to expanded gaming, a plan some say will push expanded gaming through the House once and for all. Governor Beshear may in-fact enjoy a reversal of fortunes in the House but the red dragon of Cumberland County is waiting and his 666 p.o box in Burksville just reinforces the dragon analogy.

If Beshear stands victorious, hand-in-hand with House leaders, and pushes through some form of expanded gaming legislation will it still be considered a victory after King David Williams sets the legislation on fire with one blast of his dragon breath? Would it be better to cut your losses and prepare for the future?

It will be worth it if: Governor Beshear stands shoulder to shoulder with House leaders rebuking a probable Williams instigated slaying of this new legislation, seeing it makes it through the House first. It will be worth it if the House leaders actually stand with the Governor and for once and shows him his due respect. This scenario will provide Governor Beshear and his administration a much needed infusion of political capitol in the House.

If will be disastrous if: Beshear's new proposal is set on fire in the House, if they turn on him like they did even before the 2008 session began. If one had rolled the bones in late November, they would have realized the fix was in and they would have known Beshear was going to get snubbed in the House. If the new proposal fails to make it out of the House the press will declare a historical failure in this session and Governor Beshear will be lucky if he recovers before the next regular session in 2010.

Quite surprisingly a few in the horse industry are a little chapped at Beshear, Pat Crowley's article this morning reinforced what I have been hearing. Many activists for the horse racing industry are bellowing their displeasure and they are not being shy about it either.

So politically this move by our Governor may be considered genius in a few months or be yet another piece of ammunition provided to our less-than enthused media in regards to this administration. In either scenario it could be argued that one would find something positive to cling on to, the budget, ethics reform, pension reform, and deep six expanded gaming for the moment.    

Governor Steve Beshear Set to Announce Slots at Tracks?

Casinos and Racinos may be a distant memory, but the buzz over Governor Steve Beshear's (D) big casino revamp announcement on Monday has the pundits guessing. I have not heard anything from any credible or well placed source but there may be enough static traffic to decipher the purpose of the casino announcement. It appears Beshear and the House leadership are teaming up for slots at tracks.

Of course the whole casino debacle needed a face-lift from the original cut and the second cut, and in my humble opinion the enabling legislation and the campaign like wording in the proposed ballot question was two huge strikes against the proposed casino legislation to begin with and thus created an atmosphere of animosity among the House and the Administration from the beginning. I will defend, to an extent, the need for the enabling legislation. The fact that we are currently experiencing a budget crisis proves Beshear was absolutely right about the need for an injection of revenue into the state coffers and enabling legislation would have "enabled" the Commonwealth to begin enjoying the fruits of the casino industry sooner than later. The wording in the ballot question? It had a smart legal purpose that would have locked the cash generated from casino gaming to be used for specific purposes and services and that boiled the blood of the General Assembly. And that lack of political savvy doomed casinos from the start, in the House.

Now we have Rep. Harry "Funny Money" Moberly (D) filling a void in House leadership that is consistently vacated by House Speaker Jody Richards (D) when the shit hits the fan, and it usually does every year. This new failure in the House could be the fuel that fires a Rep. Greg Stumbo (D) to the top in the House next year. If Beshear's announcement is indeed slots-at-tracks, I would speculate Stumbo had a hand in it, in some way.

Those 3 choices are STILL on the table; Casinos, or some form of expanded gaming, higher taxes, or massive cuts in services. Looks like we Kentuckians will be treated to all three in the coming years and I for one will ask another question; could we have avoided being stuck with all three? The answer at this point is a resounding YES but Governor Beshear showed great courage pushing for a 70 cent increase in the cigarette tax. Again in my humble opinion the system of legislative negotiating broke down and if the people charged with leading the fight for and against break down, the machine breaks down. The machine broke and the only way to fix the machine is, of course, new parts. What parts will be replaced? I will not speculate on that now but give it a few months and the answer to that question will be as clear as Black Mountain water.

Keeling Gets it Right, Kentucky General Assembly 2008 a Waste

UPDATE: King David Williams is trying to put the smack down on the Mouth of Madison County, Rep. Harry Moberly (D). Williams says Moberly is stuffing the budget full of EKU projects, of course Moberly is an executive director at EKU. I guess Harry is getting too big for those big britches.

Finally, the Lexington Herald Leader's own Larry Dale Keeling gets something right, the 2008 session of the Kentucky General Assembly is a waste. Who should be blamed? Probably the so called leaders of our esteemed Kentucky Legislature. It is amazing that we have to be billed for this service, if it was a fish, I would throw it back.

With so little accomplished so far, the last 10 days of this session are going to be pure hell as lawmakers try justify the cost (at about $55,000 a day) of sending them to Frankfort for the last three and one-half months.

It is indeed a shame how some so called Democrats treated Governor Beshear, it is apparent that Beshear's ideas and leadership were not going to be entertained in this session. He simply can not be blamed for this session debacle. Casinos are dead in the water, the budget is full of cockroaches and House Speaker Jody Richards is, as usual, MIA.

Now we can award the Mouth of The Session award, that goes to Rep. Harry Moberly (D), Moberly simply can't be trusted after his kumbaya with former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) smack in the middle of an election. But Kentucky remains 48th or 49th and we all say in unison "thank GOD for Mississippi!"

The suspects

Beshear Resists Major Services and Individual Tax Hike; Pushes for Higher Cigarette Tax

Governor Steve Beshear is now realizing his casino legislation is for the most part dead. The initial plan to generate more state revenue was systematically sabotaged by meddling members of the state house. Now house members are pushing a major tax hike, but Governor Beshear realizes from the start that most of the money generated from the tax hike is not regenerating monies.

I have always said I support an increase in the cigarette tax and the possibility of adding tolls to state highways for the purpose of up-keep and future construction. The details in regards to this new house tax proposal are slowly coming to light and hopefully this comprehensive attempt at a state funding bailout from citizens that already pay too much tax, does not include individual tax increases.

Rep. Greg Stumbo (D) says the unofficial Democratic house member head count is 40-20 for the increase. This should grow as some members are trying the tactic of bullying other undecided or opposed house members.

Kentucky is a smokers paradise and while I smoked for most of my life, I am lucky, I quit stone cold. I know people that drive 50 miles from Virginia and Tennessee to buy cigarettes here in Kentucky. Beshear's proposal to increase the tax by 70cents is certainly nothing out of the ordinary. Take trip to New York and buy a pack of Marlboro's, $5.50 in Albany, the last time I was up there. Who knows maybe a few people will stop smoking these nasty cancer coffin nails.

Hopefully Beshear has the strength to veto a so called comprehensive tax increase. Members that do not push for this 70cent increase in the cigarette tax are the one who are irresponsible.

Remember Those Choices? Casinos, Raise Taxes or Cut Services

Looks like us Kentuckians are in for a dose of tax increases and it appears small businesses and your pay check will suffer from the effects of this so called revenue plan, A.K.A tax increase. Also House budget chairman Harry Moberly (D) says adding tolls on some Kentucky roads will also be included in this plan. I am a play you pay type, but most roads in Kentucky are supposedly paid for, I don't agree with having to pay for them again, if this is the case.

With casino gaming seemingly dead as a doornail in 2008, Kentuckians have 2 choices, raise taxes and or cut spending. Governor Steve Beshear (D) has already proposed a spending cut, but many are not going for his proposed cuts in higher education. This is the tough part about being governor and Beshear can make the tough choices. Beshear has never said he would NOT raise taxes, he has always said it is a last resort. But as the hard work continues at the capitol, I hope a few more bucks can be shaved off the budget before we resort to a tax increase.

Playing Politics for Votes? Say it aint so!

Maybe the casino amendment has a chance? If it didn't, why is Senate President David Williams (R), yet again, throwing kidney punches? Sure, you support the Governor's agenda, you get to jump ahead of someone that did not for pet projects or anything else political, that is the way it works. But Williams is either scared the casino legislation may have a little air left or he reacting to Beshear's promise to veto SB1 if it makes it to his desk. I am hearing that someone has proof of big time gambling by the distinguished Senate President. I have heard that rumor for years, hopefully the spewing hypocrite gets his.

Casinos Clogging the Session

Yes sure I am for casinos in Kentucky but it is to be expected that our General Assembly would work to pass more legislation.

Legislation singed by the Governor on March 3rd

HB 168

AN ACT relating to operator's licenses.
     Amend KRS 186.412, regarding motor vehicle operator's licenses, to clarify that a member of the military returning to the Commonwealth from out-of-state duty whose operator's license has expired while away shall not be cited or convicted for driving on an expired license within 90 days of return to the state.

HB 366

AN ACT relating to self-contained storage units.

Here come the $800 Million Revenue Package, I mean Tax Increase

Once again I will say I support an increase in the cigarette tax, period. But I do not support any other tax increases.

House Speaker Jody Richards (D) blames the state revenue shortage on a downturn in the state economy and stayed up late this weekend putting together a revenue package with other House leaders. House leaders say they could only find less than $30 million in varying efficiencies, so revenue will have to be generated by, you guessed it, a tax increase.

Pol Watchers is reporting that the House is planning on seeking Governor Beshear's endorsement on an estimated $800 million increase in revenue, A.K.A tax increases. It was rumored that State House Budget Committee Chairman Rep. Harry Moberly (D) was working on an extensive tax increase a couple of weeks ago, (HERE). If the rumors are true we should expect an increase in the individual and corporate income tax.

House Speaker Richards playing for the other side?

I have just received an interesting email from a well placed source that reminded me of a very important fact; Jody Richards has never supported casino gaming until this year. If he indeed has, I can not find an example of it. And they had an interesting theory that Richards is actually playing up to the anti-casino lobby thus destroying the amendment by acting like a 3 year old who drank to much Pepsi yesterday.

Larry Keeling's latest thread on the issue seems to support this ridiculous but intriguing theory. Ridiculous meaning; how could Richards expect to get away with it? Keeling says that Richards' Tuesday tirade will likely result in the previously pro-casino house headcount of 51 members to drop into the low to mid-40-s thus effectively destroying any possibility of the casino question hitting the ballot.

I don't know if I buy this or not, but knowing how politicians sometimes operate, it would not surprise me.

Kentucky Casinos Alive

The House Speaker Jody Richards version of a constitutional amendment that would allow casino gaming in Kentucky has passed the Constitutional Amendments and Intergovernmental Affairs Committee. It is a good thing that the legislation made it out of committee, but what kind of reaction does this legislation receive on the house floor?

Hopefully it is received in a positive manner and gets off the house floor quickly because the Republican controlled Senate will likely be a hoot of a show once it gets there. I am waiting on some new poll results in regards to voting and allowing casinos in Kentucky, I have yet to see new data in a while. Why?

The Richards version of the proosal allows up to 9 casinos and MAY allow a few at racetracks. Certainly no gaurantee for the tracks. Do they oppose this or support it? Looks like they will MAY oppose it.

Pol Watchers

approved a version that calls for nine casinos, of which as many as five “may” be at horse racetracks.

The horse industry has opposed that version. Industry representatives say that they could be shut out by all free-standing casinos.

House Speaker Jody Richards Stacks the Deck

House Speaker Jody Richards (D) has stacked the proverbial deck on the Constitutional Amendments and Intergovernmental Affairs Committee as he has booted Rep. Dottie Sims (D) off the committee for voting for the other faction's proposal, she responded to her dismissal as "move akin to "communism.". Richards replaced Sims with two key allies.

Rep. Rob Wilkey (D) and Rep. Larry Clark (D) kicked Richards' in the teeth earlier in the day by getting their, horse track friendly, casino proposal brought o the committee for a vote.

Now Richards is making a move that can be considered cheap and childish, but he is the House Speaker and seeing that Richards is really trying to muscle the horse tracks out of the casino business, it is not surprising he would stoop to this level. Now that Richards has managed to alienate many in the house, I expect Stumbo to begin maneuvering. He has drawn a line in the sand with the horsie bunch and that might not be such a good idea.   

Governor Beshear calls House Leadership to meeting

Governor Steve Beshear (D) has called, from what I am gathering, an emergency meeting with Democratic house leaders. House Speaker Jody Richards has already told the press what he prefers and rumors suggest that a real division among house leaders exist, instead of the flaky political stuff.

Governor Beshear is showing leadership after a couple of weeks of criticism from the press and progressive bloggers. Hopefully the situation in the house is salvageable and the Governor can glue this sinking ship back together.

What do you think will happen; a melt down? Or a consensus?

Did Mark Hebert find fraud or is this a bunch of nothing

The red side of the blogosphere is beginning to light up with allegations of extortion in the Democratic controlled State House. Mark Hebert from WHAS11 in Louisville said on the KET program Comment on Kentucky that the horse racing industry is suggesting that a faction in the house is holding them hostage in regards to the proposed enabling casino legislation. Hostage meaning, some Democratic house members are suggesting that the horsie set pony up some cash for Democratic house races this spring and fall.

After Hebert's remarks, Al Cross beeped in that "in some places that is called extortion", and everyone on the panel had a good healthy laugh. Anything going on here? Or this just a smart aleck remark from a respected journalist?

Northern Kentuckians Want Casino Gaming and We All Want to Vote

Northern Kentuckians want casino gaming and their voices are growing louder and louder. A recent Survey USA poll (HERE) shows that a clear majority of Northern Kentuckians favor casino gaming, 69% to 28%. The surprising result from this recent polling is the fact that the majority of Republicans and conservatives support casino gaming.

Conservatives - 51% Yes - 47% No - 2% undecided

Republican - 58% Yes - 38% No - 4% undecided

Now with the faction system alive and well in the State House, will those factions simply destroy the possibility of a ballot question and the enabling legislation? I warned everyone as to my analysis that we in Kentucky have three choices; (HERE)  casino gaming, higher taxes and or massive cuts in services and in higher education. Now it appears higher taxes will be in our future.

Now with the dysfunctional leadership in the House rearing its ugly head, it looks like the possibility of a tax increase may become reality (HERE). Northern Kentucky represents a large portion of state wide voters, both Republican and Democratic and the pressure on their elected officials to support gaming or the ballot question will only grow. They know with gaming in Kentucky thier region will prosper and thier future will become a little brighter.

A Conservative blog called us out last week in regards to our thread on Senator Williams' refusal to allow Kentuckians the right to vote on the issue (HERE). They claim we do not know how to interpret our constitution. One fundamental disagreement between the Blue and the Red is the line WE THE PEOPLE. That statement transcends, and the jerk that called us out should review his organizations history, The Family Foundation. The Family Foundation rallied the Kentucky General Assembly in 2004 claiming Kentuckians had the right to vote on the issue of Gay Marriage. Now they have changed their tune, they say we do not have a right to vote on the issue of expanded gaming.

I am waiting on some statewide polling on the right to vote on this issue. It is a hoot to see no such polling data seems to be forthcoming. The Young Professionals Association of Louisville announced they will support casino gaming and a grassroots organization in Harden County as formed a right-to-vote group. But time is running out and we need to let our elected officials know, WE WANT THE RIGHT TO VOTE.

Here Comes the Tax Increase!

I support a higher cigarette tax, so lets get that out of the way. But I do not support any other tax increases, no way and no how. Now with the massive cuts proposed by Governor Beshear, The State House Budget Committee Chairman Rep. Harry Moberly (D) is working a comprehensive tax increase package.

Included is the higher cigarette tax, a 25 to 35 cent increase. I think it should be much higher, say 60 cents. Moberly said that he is also looking at the corporate income tax and ,here it comes, wait for it....he is looking at the individual income tax. With massive cuts to programs that some believe, as I, are too important just to slash, comes the inevitable tax increase. I believe in a ballast government, a ballast tank or system is designed to shift water from one tank to another to control certain functions of a sub and or surface ship.

I am sure if we had a governor's commission that's sole purpose in life is to review every single dime of state cash, we could save or shift hundreds of million of dollars from department to department or program to program all without the dreaded tax increase. But that would take a group of people that simply cares less about politics, because a ballast government will bring you political hurricanes almost everyday.

Louisville Courier Journal

Moberly, D-Richmond, said the main element of his package remains a 25- to 30-cent increase in the state's 30-cent-per-pack cigarette tax. That is projected to raise roughly $125million a year.

He said again that he's also considering an increase in the corporate income tax rate, which was cut in 2005, and hopes to realize savings by refinancing some state bonds.

But he said he's also looking at making some changes in the individual income tax, which he declined to discuss.

"We could stand to do some things to the income tax," he said. "I've got two or three things I'm working on there."

Moberly declined to disclose details because he said leaders of the House Democratic majority need to meet on the matter   

If anyone is wondering how House Speaker Jody Richards (D) feels about the cuts, well take a gander at the comment he gave.

House Speaker Jody Richards, D-Bowling Green, said he isn't surprised Moberly is working to generate as much as $400million more a year.

"Even that kind of money won't make the progress we want in elementary and secondary and higher education, but it would keep us from falling backward," Richards said.

Richards is now publicly saying Kentucky will be falling backward under Governor Steve Beshear's (D) budget cuts. He had been real careful not to express that opinion until now. With a tax package on the way, could this be a sign of death for the casino bill? Of course Richards supports this tax increase legislation.

Governor Beshear Uses Grace Instead of Mace

Everyone knew this casino legislation would be difficult to pass and the discussion in regards to the legislation would be heated at times. Now we may be in a full fledged language battle over the enabling legislation for casino gaming, that could be a battle that may never end.

From Pol Watchers

Rep. Greg Stumbo, D-Prestonsburg, said he didn't think the latest set-back would derail the bill's chances. But he said it does show that many House Democrats have a slew of concerns about the major proposal.

"It will be the largest issue that I’ve seen the General Assembly deal with in my legislative experience," said Stumbo, a former Democratic floor leader. "It’s complicated, a lot of competing interests, a lot of money at stake. And I would speculate that the vote this morning was an indication that some of the members really haven’t gotten comfortable with this language yet."

After Beshear's legislation got the chop yesterday, (HERE) many was champing at the bit wanting to know how Beshear felt about it. Today during a heated student rally at the Capitol, protesting the massive budget cuts aimed at higher education, Beshear said in an interview that he is OK with 9 casinos. But only allowing 9 nine casinos may not be Beshear's only worry, the fact that his legislation is moving closer and closer toward the super massive black hole should be his number one worry.

I am trying to pick up on some hallway chatter in regards to Beshear's moves trying to pass this casino bill but all is quiet for the most part. He did attend a UK basketball with a number of Democratic House members last night but while that is tradition in Kentucky, it will not replace a white knuckle 30 days of farm selling work. But being graceful with the changes made to his legislation is the best move and may provide some political breathing room for the legislation to pass the House. But the Senate looms large in the distance and that mountain is covered with tar and razorblades.

Jenkins Pencil Whips Beshear's Legislation

As predicted here months ago and as recently as a week or so ago (HERE), a showdown appears likely between Governor Steve Beshear (D) and Rep. Joni Jenkins (D) over the Governor's proposal for legislation that would allow 12 casino operations in Kentucky.

Jenkins took the good old General Assembly pencil eraser to Beshear's legislation and erased 3 of the 12 casinos that would be created under Beshear's plan. The point of the change seems to be aimed at the horse racing industry as Jenkins made it a point to limit race tracks to 5 casinos, Beshear's plan would have allowed 7. The move could cost Kentucky a possible $100 million or more a year in tax revenue.

Seeing that most people are considering Kentucky's relatively small population as a bench mark for the number of casinos in Kentucky and not weighing out-of-state possibilities as effectively as they should, the number of proposed casinos was bound to have dropped. With less than a month to go in this year's regular session of the Kentucky General Assembly, it is not looking good for the enabling casino legislation.

It may be time to scrap the enabling legislation and make an all out push for he right to vote on the issue. While I personally support expanded gaming in Kentucky, I support the right to vote on the issue more. 

Will Senator David Williams Ignore Kentucky?

The bold question; will Senate President David Williams (R) ignore Kentucky? Williams has already made his position on the possibility of allowing Kentuckians the right to vote on allowing casinos known to all, he will not entertain it. But as we move forward in this year's legislative session; will Williams be forced to entertain our right to vote on the casino issue? The data clearly indicates that the people want to vote on the issue and it also indicates that some of Kentucky's most populous regions want casino gaming. Regions that are represented by Republican members of the State Senate.

This could be a nightmare for Williams. He has exhibited a ruthless ability to strong-arm his senate members without consequence. Now that some of his more powerful members may be forced to actually listen to their constituency, Williams' grip may slip and this could result in a devastating political mess for Williams, a mess that he may never recover from.

A constant sample of SurveyUSA and other polling data says that an overwhelmingly number of Kentuckians want to vote on the issue of allowing expanded gaming in Kentucky.

• 83% Want to Vote
• 17% No

A recent SurveyUSA poll conducted in Northern Kentucky shows overwhelming support for casino gaming.

• 69% Want Casinos
• 28% Do not Want Casinos
• 3% Undecided

A February 2007 Bluegrass Poll asked the question if Kentuckians favored casino style gaming at race tracks.

• 52% Approve
• 38% Disapprove
• 10% Undecided

A SurveyUSA poll conducted in September of 2007 asked the question in regards to casino gaming and morality,

• 59% Not Morally Wrong
• 36% Morally Wrong
• 5% Not Sure

My sources are telling me that Senator Williams is sweating bullets over the fact that if the constitutional amendment measure is approved in the house, which is likely, he will face a battle of epic proportions in his chamber. The enabling legislation aside, Kentuckians want to vote on the issue and I have a funny feeling Williams will experience a massive amount of political pressure among his constituents to allow us our constitutional right to vote on this issue. Now we see who stands with Senate President Williams and who stands with the mass of Kentuckians. I would not want to be the members who choose to ignore the people.

William Yung III Says Beshear's Proposed Casino Tax Too High

Now we know Governor Steve Beshear (D) is not playing favorites, especially with vampires like casino operator William Yung III. In an Associated Press interview, William Yung III says Beshear's proposed casino tax, 51%, is "too high" and that it will "not work".

The field of dreams mentality works with expanded gaming, if you build it they will come. Yung is simply performing his best lobbyist impression, trying to convince our General Assembly to drop the tax rate.

Yung of course was ousted from his New Jersey casino operations for terrible working conditions, massive layoffs and questionable accounting practices. He is also under investigation in Nevada for presumably the same offenses.

Read more about William Yung III (HERE)

LET KENTUCKY VOTE

Hopefully this coalition will grow and help the General Assembly realize the people are overwhelmingly in favor of voting on this issue. WE WANT TO VOTE.

Members (Last updated 2/13/2008)
Greater Louisville Inc.
Greater Owensboro Chamber of Commerce
Jefferson County Teacher's Association
Kentucky Chamber of Commerce
Kentucky Equine Education Project
Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce
United Food and Commercial Workers Local 227
United Food and Commercial Workers IN-KY Council

Three Choices; Casinos, Higher Taxes or Cut Services?

Casinos? Maybe

Higher Taxes? I would support a higher cigarette tax ONLY. Governor Beshear is trying to adhere to his pledge of higher taxes only when everything else fails.

Cut Services? No, there are better ways to do business and I am sure every state department and office can find a way to tighten the belt and now they are forced to. Future state budgets will suffer and Governor Beshear has began the process and is intending to cut services and cut spending. When you spend beyond your checkbook, you will go broke. Basic financial responsibility is required among adults, well most adults. If you go broke and continue spending money you don't have, you will usually go to jail. It seems the government has a pass and does not comply with simple rules of society.

Cutting higher education and health care services is not the way Governor Beshear wants to do business, he is forced into this situation. I will expect a rash of spending examples from our governor in the comment section, bring it on. But the fact remains; we are going broke and Governor Beshear must act now.

The people should have the right to vote on the casino issue, I support expanded gaming, but my focus will be on the right to vote on the issue. The right to vote on this issue is not only an issue in regards to casino gaming, it is our civic right and we should demand that our General Assembly afford us the right to vote on this issue.

UPDATED: Governor Beshear Introduces Historical Amendment Proposal

UPDATE 10:00PM: Senate President David Williams (R) sounds more like a gangster than a elected official. Williams spews the most embarrassing rant in recent memory in regards to Beshear's casino legislation. It has to be really embarrassing for our state senators to have to serve with a bully like Williams. Hopefully the senate stands up to the bully. Read his rant (Here)

UPDATE 8:00PM: A tip from a comment in this thread informed me that Rep. Greg Stumbo (D) is opposing Beshear's legislation in regards to a casino in Floyd County at the Thunder Ridge racetrack. Stumbo says the population is too poor for a casino. He is right, the population in Floyd is too poor to support a casino operation, I agree with him 100%. Also House Speaker Richards failed to attend the casino legislation announcement today, but says it is not a protest. Richards is rumored to be leading a charge to change some of Governor Beshear's revenue spending percentages.

A certain amount of discontent is expected as well as some opposition but rumors are flying that the enabling legislation is very much in flux and will take some hard work by Governor Beshear to see it through. Though the amendment proposal is very much alive.

Update: The wording in the proposed constitutional amendment is being attacked as a marketing ploy and attacked in other ways. An email from a very trusted source tells me that the wording hold very valuable legal water. If the amendment is passed with that exact wording, the General Assembly can not change the course of the revenue later. Very smart.

Under the leadership of Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear (D) the Commonwealth may very well be earning up to $600 million per year in new tax revenue. Governor Beshear unveiled his casino legislation along with a proposal for a constitutional amendment allowing casino gaming in Kentucky. The Commonwealth could cash in on an extra $500 in casino license fees. That money could be allocated as soon as 2009.

Under Governor Beshear's legislation, Kentucky would entertain 12 casino operations, 7 at horse tracks and 5 free standing facilities. All estimates suggested by the LRC in regards to possible revenue that would be generated by casino gaming is now exposed to have been nearly half of the possible amount.

Kentucky would institute a 51% tax rate, one of the highest taxes of this nature in the nation. The Governor's proposal also calls for $2 million per year to be used for compulsive gamblers.

The wording for the proposed constitutional amendment is clearly geared toward making the voter think about the possibility of a revenue shot in the arm for the Commonwealth. Governor Beshear's proposal for the ballot question is an attempt to educate the voter. Seeing the press is unlikely to spin any story toward educating the public, the Governor must do it itself.

"Are you in favor of increasing state financial support for elementary and secondary education, expanding health care for senior citizens, children and others, support for local governments, and combating drug and alcohol abuse and other important programs by permitting the General Assembly to authorize up to five casinos subject to approval of the voters in the city or county where the casino is located; and up to seven casinos licenses for existing horse racing associations, all of which will be subject to the approval of a state agency created to oversee casino gaming."

From Pol Watchers

The amendment also specifies how tax money from casino gambling can be spent: 50 percent for education, 20 percent for health care, 10 percent for city and county governments, three percent for host cities and counties, and 17 percent for a variety of other programs.

Northern Kentuckians Favor Casinos

New polling data from SurveyUSA says that Northern Kentuckians overwhelmingly support casino gaming in Kentucky. Why?, because they see about a billion a year flying across the Ohio River within eyesight of Kentucky and knowing our schools and our roads that need the money.

The results are overwhelming in favor of allowing casino gaming, 69% to 28%. Now we see how many Reps say Beshear's legislation in on "life support" and how many journalists insist that Beshear is out of touch with Kentucky. I am not saying that parts of Kentucky will not be opposed to expanded gaming, but clearly the heavily Republican Northern Kentucky is screaming for expanded gaming.

See entire crosstabs HERE

Interesting results

• Conservatives - 51% Yes - 47% No - 2% undecided
• Republican - 58% Yes - 38% No - 4% undecided
• Age 55+ - 61% Yes - 36% No - 3% undecided

Beshear vs. Jenkins Showdown?

I have been speculating for a while that Rep. Joni Jenkins (D) and Governor Steve Beshear (D) will go to the mat before the casino question is fully answered. If anyone has forgotten, Rep. Jenkins and Governor Beshear have not been the best of pals, or at least that is what she apparently likes to say behind closed doors. Jenkins of course served as the Kentucky Democratic Party's Vice Chairperson, under notable Beshear nemesis Jerry Lundergan, until, as noted by Jenkins in her resignation letter to the SCEC, Beshear said he was replacing her a day after the gubernatorial primary.

Now she told Herald Leader's lead Beshear basher, Ryan Alessi, that Beshear's casino legislation is currently "on life support". Some foresaw an inevitable showdown (HERE) when House Speaker Jody Richards (D) appointed Jenkins as the head of a special casino task force. Rep. Jenkins also serves as the co-chair of the Licensing and Occupations committee in the state House. So that means no matter how you slice it, Beshear's casino legislation will go through Jenkins's backyard in the General Assembly. Does she have the juice to take on Beshear and his legislation?

Casino and Hotel Giant William Yung III Banking on Casinos in Kentucky

I am an unabashed supporter of expanded gaming in Kentucky. With my support of the idea of expanded gaming as a revenue source, my support is limited to the idea and implementation of the idea, in other words, pass expanded gaming in Kentucky. With the possibility of casinos becoming reality in Kentucky comes the inevitable possibility of a shady money giant wanting in on the action here in the Bluegrass State.

Enter William Yung III, owner of some 83 hotels and a dozen casino operations. This type of person may be common place in this industry, a man spending millions to make millions. I have no problem with a William Yung III the entrepreneur, execpt he is an acquisition giant not an entrepreneur. Have you ever had a job when a person buys you out, sucks up about 6 months of profits and then closes the doors, this is William Yung III. I do have a problem with a William Yung III trying to force buy his way into a blossoming industry, especially as a plank owner of the industry in Kentucky.

It is well documented that William Yung III contributed over 1 million big ones to the Bluegrass Freedom Fund, it is also well documented that the BFF helped oust former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R). It is also well documented that William Yung III was virtually kicked out of New Jersey's gaming mecca, Atlantic City, where he owned such famous casino operations as the Tropicana Casinos and Resorts.

Our proposed legislation must provide safeguards to prevent such operators of casino establishments here in the Bluegrass. The rules governing casinos in Kentucky should prevent anyone who has been convicted of certain crimes or virtually convicted by a gaming commission from owning a casino operators license in Kentucky, it is that simple.

William Yung III has been accused of massive layoffs, extreme cost cutting, bad working conditions, he was stripped of his operators license in New Jersey, he is under investigation in Indiana, the Nevada Gaming Control Board has also announced an investigation, he is an all around money parana that just happens to be in casino business.

If Yung's past transgressions is not grounds for an immediate denial of a casino operators license, then there will be no grounds for such a denial, short of being a convicted felon.

While the spin continues and the press insists on throwing our Governor into a mixing bowl with characters such as William Yung III, it is evident that when a gubernatorial candidate announces he will push for casinos in a state where none exist, a certain number of people of Yungs caliber will pop up like a bad cold sore. Beshear would be smart to legislate people like Yung out of the Bluegrass State forever.    

Casino Revenue Spin to Begin

The bellowing in the Kentucky blogosphere is suggesting, strongly i might add, that casino gaming is dead in the water. Losing a Democratic seat in the Kentucky State Senate, formally held by now LT Governor Daniel Mongiardo (D), is a set back, no way to dodge that. But casino opponents are sharpening their knives and getting ready to infiltrate rural Kentucky, using the church and the Senate District 30 special election as an example.

The special election was NOT an election about casino gaming, it was the result of a split Democratic party, but expanded gaming was in play. While hateful attack ads ran on both sides, Smith's use of the church was effective, at the end of the day. And when you have county Democratic party committee members out campaigning against the Democratic candidate, it makes for a tough road, no I am not talking about Roger Noe, his charge against Alexander was ineffective in Harlan, though Democratic committee members were out campaigning for Smith there.

We proved, and the media has ignored, LRC economists low balling potential casino revenues, predicting Kentucky would be the second lowest tax revenue earning state east of the Mississippi. Now Governor Beshear and other casino proponents will be faced with pseudo opposition within the ever evolving anti-Beshear media, both professional and drastically unprofessional outlets.

It is indeed irresponsible to draft a budget using money that currently does not exist. Reality suggests that Kentucky could be faced with an ongoing economic crisis for years to come, especially if a true recession is approaching. With Beshear losing the public relations game, self inflicted or not, it becomes evident that Kentuckians will endure overwhelming Beshear bashing from the Kentucky mass media and make Beshear's agenda that much harder to achieve.

I again stand alone in support of our Governor and his agenda to improve our Commonwealth. While it seems that with every passing day Beshear is faced with a new crisis, most but not all fueld by media discontent, Beshear's ability to lead has not been shaken. Expanded gaming will bring us much needed revenue and the success of this legislation depends on public education through better communication with the Beshear administration NOT through the media. The media has proven that they are willing to lay the fire to Behsear warranted or not. Not saying that a portion of the current criticism is not warranted.

Blogs are meant to invoke thought, sometimes partisan and sometime nonpartisan. The media's job is to report and to formulate opinions on sound facts, that is not happening and I will make a bold prediction that the media will partially dictate the outcome of expanded gaming legislation and that is not the way it is supposed to be. But nothing is.

Casino Showdown? Hypocrisy at its Worse

The press seems to be amplifying the potentially explosive relationship between Governor Steve Beshear (D) and certain members of the Kentucky General Assembly. I have not heard much about the possibility or impossibility of a casino gaming amendment actually making on a ballot. On the surface the House seems prime to allow this amendment to become reality. The members that support casino gaming want it and the more conservative members simply just want to get it over with, so lets vote on it.

Certain House Members seem dead set on forcing the Governor to allow them to pencil-whip any potential legislation. I will stay out of that fight, because it is the General Assembly who drafts most of our legislation. But the Governor also seems to be dead set on drafting this bill, his way. What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object? We may find out in the weeks to come.

The press has consistently ignored the fact that LRC economist low balled potential casino tax revenue (HERE) and the LRC actually predicted Kentucky to be the 2nd worse casino operating state in America. The doom and gloom sells papers and the press must love Kentucky being always behind Mississippi.

While I do support expanded gaming, I do respect the opinions of those who do not. But for those who do not believe us Kentuckians have the right to vote on the issue, I do not agree with you. Groups like the Family Foundation and Say No to Casinos will be preaching their sermons on the mount of lies and in the valley of the hypocrites. John-Mark-Hack, from Say No to Casinos challenged our resolve (HERE) and hopefully has realized his crude attempt to intimidate will only embolden us further.

Respected Northern Kentucky House Member Rep. Arnold Simpson (D) finally speaks out about the fact that parts of his district is located in close proximity to Indiana riverboat casinos and fact that he has not observed the total social devastation that many anti-casino groups would lead you to believe. In a hearing yesterday, Kent Ostrander, executive director of The Family Foundation is using the faux LRC estimates as fuel to fight a vote on casino gaming. Now the BS estimates will surly become fodder and along with the Herald Leader's effort to sensationalize every-time Beshear passes gas, anti casino groups will not experience a shortage of ad footage to select from. 

Now we stand by and observe how far the hypocrisy will go, the press, anti casino groups and legislators, all bogged down in the muck of hypocrisy.   

Al Cross Gets it Right and Gets it Wrong, The Press Needs a Calculator

I respect Al Cross, I think he is probably one of the most talented journalists in Kentucky, but his opinions and political analysis are both right and wrong.

First of all I am deeply disappointed in the MSM, as usual they have no desire to look to the blogs except to steal our stories without credit, Page One finally cracked that mold last week. I wish members of the main stream media would pick up a simple 2 dollar calculator and punch in the numbers. One of my influential friends, quiet ironically a Republican, says their not smart enough, I disagree, I think they are so scared to appear to be sided with Governor Steve Beshear (D) they are willing to let the facts sort of disappear.

It is amazing that an all powerful estimate, that has ironically been mention is EVERY media outlet in this Commonwealth, declared that Kentucky would in fact be the worse casino operating state east of the big river. It could be said the LRC's economists played their own form of politics, took marching orders from someone, and slipped a little white lie to the press to make as Al Cross declares the casino question "even on his signature proposal for casinos, an idea that seems as complicated as ever, and almost as controversial. "

I will not defend every political move Governor Beshear has made, it would be foolish of me to do so. It is apparent that a taste of the old ways is back and alive in Frankfort, in fact it has never changed and the taste has only remained the same.

Cross gets it right with his statement that Beshear appears not to have his ducks in a row. It can be said that a certain House member kissed his ring and then struck with a knife a few weeks later. There is a rolling rumor that House Speaker Richards (D) has no control over his members, huh, and certain Beshear enemies in the House are making damn sure the casino question dies. But the politics is complicated and us common citizens will probably never know the true story.

Now Al Cross has made the number one suggestion that gets us Democrats beat up, gets us tagged as tax and spend liberals. To not appear as a hypocrite, I do support a higher cigarette tax, but Cross takes its too far and gives his political advice. He believes granting local officials the right to tax their local citizens is the answer. I say Cross is dead wrong and he needs get out more. A local tax option would be disastrous and Cross should have more sense than that.

Now I sit and wait, wait on the story that will never come. The story of how state pencil necks spun the numbers and lied to an entire Commonwealth. How a set of pessimistic economists, better be pessimistic or they took some marching orders, declared Kentucky will be the WORSE casino operating state in the nation, with the exception of Iowa.

If someone can challenge these numbers, I will happily post an updated thread on this subject. But I am deeply suspicious, the numbers from the LRC do not add up. Considering the geographical location of Kentucky, the buffer to from North to South or South to North, Kentucky is in amazing position for success. But it appears us citizens will not be afforded the right to vote on the subject.

Mathematical Proof the LRC Low-Balled Casino Revenue Projections, Predicted to be the 2nd Worse in America

As we showed last night it appears the LRC economists calculated that Governor Steve Beshear's (D) estimates in regards to tax revenue generated by casino gaming were indeed short by almost $200 million. We calculated that it appeared the LRC only used a 3 or 4 casino model for their equations but it was later revealed that they indeed used a 9 casino model.

Indiana admissions topped 15,300,000 in 2007. If you divide that by their 10 operating casinos, each casino would average 1,530,000 people in 2007. Do a little more math and you would see that Indiana casinos average 4,250 visitors per day. Illinois casinos topped 17,725,437, each of the 9 casinos would average 1,969,493 per year, 164,124 per month and 5470 admissions per day. Chicago obviously helps the average daily attendance for the Illinois casinos.

With the LRC calculating a $314 million annual tax revenue from 9 casinos at a 35% tax rate and $92 per person, per visit , we can calculate the average attendance per day for a Kentucky casino. With an annual AGR of $897,142,857 Kentucky would entertain 9,751,553 gamers per year, each casino would host 1,083,506 per year, 90,292 visitors per month and 3,009 gamers per day. Indiana's average AGR per person is around $170 per day and Illinois avg AGR person is around $108 per day, the casino at Rock Bridge really drags down the average AGR per person.

The chart below also says the LRC is predicting that Kentucky would be the most unsuccessful casino operating state in America, aside from Iowa with her 10 casinos at a 15% lower tax rate than LRC economists are predicting here in Kentucky. If Iowa charged a 35% state casino tax, Kentucky and Iowa would be virtually neck and neck for the poorest casino operating state in the nation. You got to love the doom and gloom from the LRC!

Iowa is pretty successful considering the lack of any large city in their regions of casino operations. Kentucky is positioned to be very successful, seeing our long standing tradition in gaming. Numbers are numbers, the LRC is predicting Kentucky to be the most unsuccessful casino operating state in the nation, with the exception of Iowa. Even Mississippi would beat us by close to $18 mil per year.

To summarize; the predictions made from the LRC are clearly biased, as they show a very negative opinion toward the idea of casinos in Kentucky. Maybe a pessimistic outlook is wise, I don't know, but clearly the LRC has stacked every deck they can against Governor Steve Beshear's projected $500 million per year in tax revenue. Chart on bottom from Indiana gaming Commission

      

John Mark Hack From "Say No To Casinos" Responds to Our Article Calling Him Out for Seeking Employment from KEEP

Yes Hack I have served my country pal, I am a decorated United States Naval Veteran, and a veteran of the Kosovo Liberation, NATO Operation Allied Force Ground and Sea Campaigns and Operation Southern Watch, you know, war. I am surly not a coward.

If you did not seek employment from KEEP, then send me a rebuttal and I will post it. If you stand beside the Family Foundation, you have me as an opponent, especially if you act as a Democrat while standing with that group. If you think I buy that jive that you did not know KEEP was all about gaming, horsy set in Kentucky, gaming, hmmm, seems to have been going on for 150 years, I will never believe it unless you provide us with a letter from KEEP confirming it. But I will post your rebuttal as I did below.

This will continue. 

Posted on BlueGrassRoots via this thread (HERE)

Uninformed and unhealthy (0.00 / 0)

Dear Shack:

It's cowardly to post things in a completely unaccountable way. That said, I was encouraged when the e-mail I received after registering with your blog indicated its purpose is "to promote a healthy conversation about policy and politics." I love irony.

From your writing, it seems you may not be clear on what the word "liberal" means. Here are a couple of things that might be helpful to you:

- I'm a Returned Peace Corps Volunteer (Costa Rica, 92-94) (by the way, have you served your country Shack?)
- I spent 5 1/2 years as a top official in the Governor's Office during the Patton Administration. The program I started was recently recognized by the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard as one of the 50 most innovative governmental programs in the country.
- I had no involvement whatsoever in the marriage amendment debate.
- My entire life has been committed to service to others, especially people in disadvantaged communities and situations.
- My convictions about expanded gambling were formed when the lottery was passed in KY, and have never wavered since then. My opposition is based on the fact of its fundamental unfairness as a means of providing revenue for government.

Your unwillingness to verify your posting, like that of Mark Nickolas before you, is indicative of an unfortunate and gutless way of transmitting information about people. I'd be glad to give you the truth behind your misleading post if you'd like to get it. Courage is healthy after all.

I admire your goal "to promote a healthy conversation about policy and politics" Perhaps you may want to verify what you post about individuals before you post it though. That approach seems "healthier" to me.

Finally, your joke/pun about my last name is really, really clever. You truly have a razor wit. I haven't heard that before..."hack" vs. "Hack"...it's really hilarious. Nice job.

I wish you well on your blog. It's certain that we need to do all we can "to promote a healthy conversation about policy and politics." In the event you read books, I have several that you might want to peruse to figure out where the word "liberal" fits in the gambling debate.

JM

---

by: JMHack @ Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 14:57:37 PM CST 

Casino Revenue Debate Heats Up and I do some Math, How does it really add up

Economists say the state's take from the revenue generated by casino gaming is lower than Governor Steve Beshear's (D) consistent total of around $500 million per year. The LRC’s economists predicted the totals from this formula;

(Pol Watchers)

The LRC study calculated the $314 million by estimating the number of visitors and multiplying it by the average amount each would lose, which is $92 per visit, to determine a total revenue of nearly $900 million for casinos. With a 35 percent tax rate in the 2007 bill, that would give the state $314 million.

With only a $900 million in gross revenue, Kentucky would likely entertain only 3 or 4 casinos. Illinois operates 9 casinos. They use the following tax system; Graduated tax rate from 15% to 50% of gross gaming revenue, $2-3 per patron admissions tax. The admissions bring in an extra $16.18 million. Illinois brings in an annual gross casino revenue of $1.924 billion from 9 operational casinos. Using the state's tax system, Illinois earns via tax, $830.24 million.

For Governor Steve Beshear's (D) totals to become reality, Kentucky would likely need to operate 6 casinos. Per Illinois totals, each casino would average $213,777,777 in gross revenue annually. Using that total as a sample, Kentucky casinos would gross $1,282,666,667 per year. Using the LRC's 35% tax rate, Kentucky would earn $448,933,333 annually, with 6 casino's. If Kentucky ups the anty and legislates, say a 40% tax on casino operations, Kentucky would bring in $513,066,667 per year while allowing 6 casinos to operate in Kentucky.

This is all calculated by averages, some casinos will bring in more and some will bring in less, it is all dependent on location. But I can not figure how in the hell the LRC came up with $312 million. Some of the proposals would allow up to 12 casinos to operate within Kentucky's borders. Not all 12 licenses would be handed out, So let us say 9 casino licenses would be granted, how much would that earn Kentucky via tax revenue? If we use the LRC's tax element from their equation, it would equal $769,600,000 in tax revenue with 9 operating casinos.

If we use the LRC's $92 loss per visitor and using the same gross revenue by 9 operating casinos divided by 9, each casino would, of course, earn $213,777,777 in gross receipts, divide that by $92 and it would dictate each casino would see 2,323,671 visitors annually. That would dictate that each casino would average 6366 visitors per day. I conclude the visitor total is very reasonable. The LRC low balled the number of casinos Kentucky would operate.

I wish people would just use the numbers that are given them and do the damn math. The proposed legislation would surly allow more than 3 or 4 operating casinos in Kentucky. Unless Rep. Jenkins (D) knows something we don't, maybe theirtask force has already decided how many casinos they will deal with and the proposal might say 12 and they might say 4. If that is the case, and Rep. Jenkins (D) sure does not sound to be a Beshearite in this case, the LRC's numbers would indeed jive and Kentucky would not operate 9 to 12 casinos, we would only see 3 or 4.

(Casino tax and revenue figures source HERE)

Casino Interests Provide Some Fuel For Casino Opponents

The worse thing that can happen in any fight is that the person or persons that your are fighting are fueled or strengthened by you. It not only, of course, drains your ability to fight but it, of course, makes the opposition's ability more effective.

Now the Herald Leader is reporting that a so called secret fund-raiser for the DNC, that saw a large part of the proceeds go to the KDP, was funded by none other than the casino and horsy set. It is not a worry as far as legality and if they want to give, let them give. But the only worry is that this report could be used as fodder and fuel for casino opponents. It's politics and while nothing can be legally challenged and or ethically challenged, Beshear and company take a hit in the political nose on this one.

I am sure whatever group or groups that are formed to take on the fight for casinos in Kentucky will beat us to death with this report. The Lexington Herald Leader will surly get some free TV advertising as this report will be mentioned in probably 90% of the oppositions ads to fight casinos.   

Lets pass the legislation and allow the people to vote.

Hot Topic: Casino Gaming

Pol Watchers has a wonderful synopsis on the soon to be bitter fight for expanded gaming.

I have stated before that I fully support the expansion of gaming in Kentucky. Below are some common sense points.

• As a revenue source, it could be the shot in the arm that our Commonwealth's needs to elevate to the next level of economic development.
• Kentucky is known world wide for the super bowl of gambling events, The Kentucky Derby, so the, we don't want gambling in this state, argument simply does not fly.
• Kentucky has a vibrant illegal gaming industry. Has anyone ever went into your local gas station - grocery store and witnessed 20 people surrounding a video poker machine. Of course these machine are for entertainment purposes only.
• Kentucky already has problem gamblers. Treatment will become available for OUR problem gamblers. Kentuckians that cross the borders and feed their addictions in another state, have no treatment options.
• If we DO NOT mix the lottery and casino's, expanded gaming could become a viable and continuous revenue source. If my research is correct, there is only one other state that allows casino gaming that allows the governing of casino's to be controlled by that state's lottery board an or commission. Keep it separate and it will have a better chance of succeeding.
• The legislation must include a local option. Keep the law centralized to discourage the possibility of local governments implementing more strict local options. Local laws and or ordinances of this nature will likely be challenged in court and just create a huge mess.
• Legislatively mandated treatment. This option, I believe, would nullify a large part of the opposition's mission fuel. If it is dictated that each casino operation must, by law, fund a state of the art treatment program, I can not see gambling addiction advocates gaining much of a foothold. Fear will defeat this measure, so nullify the fear in an honest way.

No matter what side of the fence you are on, casino gaming is our best option at this point in time. I do NOT see a fortune 50 company, or 10 of them, lining up to do business in the Commonwealth. We can build an empire of an educated work force with the revenues from expanded gaming. More education, better jobs, less drugs, more jobs and better paying jobs.

Pol Watchers provides a list of past coverage on this subject.

Previous Coverage

• Election on minds as Assembly reconvenes
• Legislative calendar
• Other major agriculture and horse issues
• College presidents fear long-term effect of budget cut
• Beshear pledge on insurance hits major snag
• Williams: Pension problem worsening
• illegal-worker issues growing in importance
• Solution offered for road fund battles
• Ethics reform suddenly shunted aside
• Balancing budget will be a bruising battle
• Governor finds there's no time, money to waste

The 2008 Regular Session of the Kentucky General Assembly Preview

Some will consider this session of the Kentucky General Assembly to be Governor Steve Beshear's first opportunity to shine or fall. Already the howling has begun (here, and here) in regards to ethics reform. Beshear and Mongiardo made ethics a cornerstone of their campaign but as the pair fight their way through the first full month of their new administration, their ethics reform package has yet to be finalized.

Ethics or the economy, ethics or the economy, lets try this one more time, ethics or the economy? I expect the pitiful state of our Commonwealth's economy may have motivated a shift in priority, but I am of course just guessing.

John Stamper, Jack Brammer and Brandon Ortiz has a wonderful synopsis of some of the issues that will certainly grace the floor of our general assembly in 2008.

• Stamper - Ethics
• Brammer - Transportation
• Ortiz - Immigration 

Expanded Gaming:

Something missing from the list above? Casinos. Already groups are fueling up for the expanded gaming drag race, already the group "Say No To Casinos" have challenged lawmakers and other elected officials to reveal any campaign contributions from the gaming industry. I say to them, go to KREF and do your homework like us bloggers. Relationships that may be considered unlawful, should be disclosed.

Kentucky needs a new revenue stream and while my religious views are causing me stomach aches, I understand the need to pay the bills and the need to improve education. One fundamental issue that nags me is the mandated treatment options that SHOULD be added as legislative language. If Kentucky lawmakers make this move toward mandated treatment, they can take some of the heat off this proposed change in our laws and hopefully open up a new avenue to maneuver the amendment vote.

Immigration:

State Rep. Rick Nelson (D) has prefiled a bill that will place employers of illegal immigrant labor on the hot seat. Nelson believes the outcry form the citizens of the Commonwealth was enough to move forward with his proposed legislation. This could be our "hot bill" to watch and may receive national attention if the proposed bill catches fire. With only a 60 day session, it will be 50/50 if a bill of this nature can gain any traction. If Nelson's bill does gain steam, you can forget expanded gaming. I can not see how a conservative push for this bill would allow any room for a non conservative expanded gaming proposal. Like I have suggested before; the issue of illegal immigration could dictate the outcome of the race for U.S. Senate, polls suggest otherwise at the moment, if this issue become fashionable, look out.

Energy:

The front has been quiet in regards to energy. The fuel was expended during the mid summer special session that resulted in a potential revolutionary energy overall that was stomped on by the national media and ridiculed as a Fletcher compromise by some Democratic bloggers and left leaning media. Now we develop the technology required to make coal cleaner, Co2 capture should receive mega federal grant dollars. Coal is our business and it may come out of the ground dirty, but we can work together and find a way to develop clean coal technology and reduce our Co2 emissions. Co2 emission reduction is NOT a suggestion it is a requirement. Again Rep. Nelson has prefiled a bill that would create tax credits smarter energy use.

Already Henderson is leading the pack by developing Coal Tech Task Force and already environmentalists have attacked their effort. John Blair, president of Valley Watch called the effort "mentally ill" and made a very stupid remark saying  "We don't need additional generating capacity,". I am an advocate for the environment, but the activists, which I respect most of, might want to muzzle some of their friends. Just like we need to muzzle poor ole Gooch.

Senate President David Williams (R) Will Not Attempt to Block a Casino Amendment Vote in the Senate

With the current dismal financial situation in the Commonwealth, Senate President David Williams (R) told the Associated Press that he will not move to block a vote on a casino amendment. Williams did say that he does not think a casino amendment will have much support in the Republican controlled senate.

Take this scenario; Williams says he will not move to block a vote in the senate on an expanded gaming amendment, at this time he does not believe the votes are there for casinos in the senate. If the votes start to shift in favor of a casino amendment, will Senate President David Williams (R) start to build the road blocks?

House Speaker Jody Richards (D) parallels Governor Steve Beshear (D) opinion in regards to the dire financial situation the Commonwealth is currently experiencing. Expect the dollar cuffs to be handed out on the first day of the regular session.

From the Associated Press

Hundreds of other bills are expected to be introduced in the upcoming legislative session that begins Jan. 8. With the state facing one of the bleakest financial outlooks in recent history, however, the state budget is certain to be the overshadowing issue, said House Speaker Jody Richards.

"I don't remember a situation more financially difficult than this one," said Richards, D-Bowling Green. "We'll just have to wait and see what happens."

Richards said the budget crisis could threaten some $400 million in long-awaited dormitories, laboratories and other buildings on university campuses.

Gov. Steve Beshear describes the state's financial condition as dire. Shortfalls already have been popping up in a variety of state programs, including Medicaid, which provides medical care to the poor and elderly.

Some Republican lawmakers have suggested that concerns being raised about the state's $18 billion budget may be a precursor to a push to legalize casino gambling. Beshear says such a move could raise about $500 million a year in extra tax revenue.

Beshear said he will ask lawmakers to approve a measure that would allow Kentucky voters to decide whether to change the state constitution to allow about 10 casinos to open. The constitution currently bans casinos.

That was a central issue in the governor's race that Beshear won in November. He favored a vote on casinos. Former Gov. Ernie Fletcher, who lost in a lopsided vote, was opposed.

Nevertheless, the proposal has an uncertain future in the General Assembly. Similar proposals before the legislature have never before gained traction.

Senate President David Williams, R-Burkesville, has said he doesn't see much support in the legislature for expanding gambling proposals. Williams has said, however, that he would not move to block a vote in the Senate.

Kentucky budget shortfall grows to $434 million

I am sure the tums are flowing freely as the Beshear administration begins to announce the dire fiscal situation of the Commonwealth. A budget shortfall of $434 million is expected to grow as the new administration institutes cuts to slow the bleeding.

Now we wait and see if the Kentucky General Assembly follows suit and slaps the cuffs on capitol projects and other spending priorities that usually occupy our regular sessions. We knew the criminal, former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) was a liar, but did we know it would be this bad? We now know Fletcher and his cronies indeed sacked the village dry of any sustenance, the Beshear administration now must find a way to to create alternative revenue sources or cut vital programs.

I expect a major showdown in this year's session on the issue of expanded gaming. Many of my Republican friends are accusing Governor Beshear of posturing for casinos in Kentucky and acting a bit with this "bad budget news", well when their state gas cards gets the chop then we'll see who is posturing for what.

Let us know how this budget crunch is affecting you, email us or leave a comment.

Could The Commonwealth's Budget Crisis Accelerate a Casino Gaming Amendment?

I have been sparring today with some Corbin Republicans about the possibility of an accelerated casino gaming amendment as a direct result of our failed budget. Certainly the Republican apparatus led by Senate President David Williams (R) can not sit idly by and do nothing to improve our financial situation.

The Herald Leader reported today that our nursing inspectors were challenged to use their own clerical items to save state cash.

"Inspectors also were warned that "there is NO MONEY in the budget at the present time," so they should bring in pens and pencils from home and not use state paper to copy nursing home records unless "absolutely necessary."

This is commonly called pinching a quarter until the eagle screams and it can not get any worse. I will admit that I am not a huge fan of gambling and I do not gamble that often, but I recognize the need for an infusion of cash and expanded gaming could be the answer. Opponents will point toward the lottery and the failed promises that followed. Some will point toward the sluggish economy of the river boat gaming states and the promises made there as well. But the politics of a broken budget certainly favors casino proponents. Williams can not stand at the podium and declare the Commonwealth financially secure, Beshear will get a pass but Williams will be left standing alone as the goat.

Williams may blame former Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher for the current budget situation but that move may splinter the Kentucky Republican Party into a million pieces, the RPK is currently shattered into hundreds. How can the state GOP and casino opponents stand and declare expanded gaming a non option? They can't and it will be interesting to watch how they handle this situation.

I have no excuses for the lottery and certainly will not try to explain the lack of financial blue sky for the southern gaming establishment, but I will say, with the right management, Kentucky can turn our budget woes around in short order with expanded gaming. A solid foundation of "doing the right thing" must be established to ensure the future viability of expanded gaming revenues.

Already the confidence in the new Beshear Administration has dropped and many are simulating wet coughs as if standing in a back room full of smoke. I stand by our new Governor and will not jump ship at the first sign of rough waters.

No excuses for the shake ups but resolve for the administration. Now Beshear's leadership will be tested, his supporters are now called upon and they must man the deck. Lets see how many report topside during the storm, I foresee see a skeleton crew. 

Reading Between the Lines: House Speaker Richards Bully Attempt?

A constitutional amendment that will answer the casino question once and for all is expected to be proposed in the upcoming 08 session and we should expect a showdown between the House and Senate members on that issue. After all does King David Williams really care what the polls indicate or does he care what the people want? Of course not and now a little rumor is spreading that indicates House Speaker Jody Richards (D) wants in on the game. Richards out flanked incoming Democratic Governor Steve Beshear by forming a casino task force and rumor indicates trouble seeing who is chairing that group.

Days after the primary election Licenses and Occupation Committee Co-Chair Rep.Joni Jenkins (D) was relieved as the co-chair of the Kentucky Democratic Party and the snot began to fly in certain circles that Beshear took a giant poo on the respected House Member. But others say that is simply not true and the trouble makers quickly shut down the discontent machine and hardly a word has been mentioned since. But now the scuttlebutt has it that many in the Democratic controlled House will not play ball in regards to a Beshear only dictated analysis on how to proceed with a proposed constitutional amendment that if passed would allow an economic boom in Kentucky via casino gaming.

Yet sources in Bowling Green say that the borders county of Warren wants a casino if the measure is passed and Richards is only serving his local agenda. One respected source in Williamsburg told me this past weekend that Senate President David Williams (R) will not, under any circumstances, allow a vote in the Senate on this issue and various so-called religious organizations are gearing up for a battle.

If the proper treatment provisions are instituted I would run like Jesse Owens with that fact. An all out public relations effort should be in the works and if I were in on the deal I would suggest that Beshear educate Kentuckians about the number of UNTREATED problem gamblers that call Kentucky home. Many Kentucky gamblers cross the borders each day and most if not all that have real problems are not eligible for treatment in those borders states. Kentucky has a long standing tradition in regards to gaming and that may be the silver bullet that nudges the proposed amendment into the go stage.

The Lexington Herald Leader weighs in on the issue.

Governor Elect Steve Beshear's Mandate?

I have been reading a couple of pessimistic posts on various media and non-media blogs chastising Governor Elect Steve Beshear (D) for his suggestion that his gubernatorial victory was in part a mandate for a casino amendment. I think the data should speak for itself, too many times the opinions of bloggers and especially the media trump the overwhelming opinion of the people, the people want to vote on this issue. As expected and predicted the media, new and old, is not willing to support the idea of a mandate on a casino amendment vote. 

Various poll results on casino vote.

	For	Against	Unsure
Herald Leader 9-07	82%	11%	7%
Courier Journal 9-07	78%	12%	10%
SurveyUSA 8-07	79%	19%	2%
Preston-Osborne	88%	12%	0%

One key point of this argument that can not be denied is the fact that Kentuckians are for the most part split down the middle in regards to actually voting for and or against the upcoming amendment. We have two very easy to understand examples of a potential mandate on the issue of a VOTE on the constitutional amendment on the issue of allowing casino gaming in Kentucky. First is the clear message sent to our elected officials via consistent polling and second is the complete failure of former Governor Ernie Fletcher's (R) No Casino Tour. Even though Governor Elect Steve Beshear (D) chose to quiet down on the issue of casino gaming, Fletcher chose this issue as the cornerstone of his campaign and failed.

Now not to be misunderstood the issue at hand is the VOTE on a constitutional amendment on the issue of allowing casino gaming in Kentucky. I think if Governor Elect Steve Beshear (D) chooses to declare that his victory is in part a mandate on the casino vote it is his prerogative and the media, new and old, should step aside or be in danger of becoming hypocrites. When the media, new and old, need their agenda to progress they always push a poll in your face to prove a point, now they will have to take their own medicine.

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Nickolas Busts Governor Fletcher and the RGA

It is time for the hip waders because this is some dog shit that Fletcher and the RGA will not be able to get off their shoes. A certain level of hypocrisy has to be tolerated in politics but our corrupt Republican Governor and CHIEF (pun) allies the Republican Governors Association are exposed as top shelf hypocrites.

The Kentucky Democratic Party has certainly been paying attention as they filed a complaint against the RGA. The KDP claims that not only has the RGA illegally targeted Democratic nominee Steve Beshear for defeat, they have illegally cooperated and planned the attacks with the Fletcher campaign. Nickolas points out that Fletcher's own media consultant Fred Davis is in Louisiana doing the RGA's dirty work.

But the meat of Nickolas' post exposes the hypocritical fact that the Republican Governor's Association has accepted $507,225 in contributions from the casino industry over the past two years!

Come on this is certainly a press worthy issue, but as we already know the KC report will be fresh ink for the next few days.