The Rural Democrat

Will Presidential Coattails be in Play for the Senate Race?

We have a race in Kentucky for the U.S. Senate, even I am surprised by the fact that we KNOW we have a race so early. National pundits and a few state"ies" have been waving their ignorant banner for McConnell, notice I wrote ignorant, most of the national and even the state press have absolutely no idea what is going on in the trenches. A column in Courier Journal this morning barely mentioned the fact that we have a race for the U.S. Senate, but at least it was mentioned.

Now we mention the unmentionable, presidential coattails. Will Obama's likely defeat in the Bluegrass cost Lunsford a Senate seat? Or does Lunsford have a chance to counter? Obama will close the gap in Kentucky, but the big, big question is what will that gap be in November? McCain has a bad habit of saying something very stupid about once a month, will his mouth cost McConnell his seat?

Recent polling for the Senate race clearly shows that we have a "margin of error" race and that margin of error is clearly in Lunsford's corner. My analysis shows that Lunsford has a clear chance, but I can offer no explaination why Kentucky Moderates are holding static while Democrats and Louisville voters are sinking fast for McConnell.

So what is the magic coattail number? McCain victory by 10, 15, 20? I figure today that number is 13 percentage points, meaning: if McCain wins by more that 13 so does McConnell. But hopefully Lunsford quickly realizes he has a magic bullet in his pocket and that bullet is election year best friend today hypocrisy.

McCain will campaign against congressional earmarks in Kentucky, thats his theme and has been for years. McConnell's success is due to the fact that brings home the bacon. If he can expose the fact that McCain and McConnell hate eachothers guts to the mass of Kentuckians, his coattail number will drop. If it turns into a Republican kumbaya fest, good Democrats will stay home and or crossover. Lunsford has a chance to keep that from happening.  

McConnell's Approval Trend Confusing, but Dangerous for McConnell

I have crunched the numbers and they do and don't make sense. Senator Mitch McConnell (R) has enjoyed a relatively unmolested last term but a comprehensive analysis of his approval numbers, multiple month trends versus the latest SurveyUSA poll results suggest that the Democratic nominee, Bruce Lunsford, has a real shot.

Polls sometimes create a different reaction than a run-of-the-mill approval survey, but the shift in opinions and support in regards to May's approval ratings and June's SurveyUSA Senate poll is a head scratcher.

The graph to the left really does not do my argument much justice, but take a look at the Democratic numbers, May approval was 45%, June's poll was 29%, no real surprise there. Louisville voters also turned on McConnell in the latest poll compared to May's approval ratings, a whopping 59% in May to 42% in June's poll. But Kentucky's most important idealogical group, Kentucky Moderates, seemed to have stayed put, in the mid-40's.

My experience tells me that when Democratic voters shift, along with a large percentage of Louisville voters, Moderates shift as a result of the mathematical relationship between the two fields. This time it does not. Why? Sampling maybe?

It can not be blamed on any large discrepancy between East/West May/June numbers, they are virtually the same between May and June. Even Pro-Life voters dropped a tad for McConnell in June. But I can not find a mathematical reason why the numbers for Moderates appear static.  

I did a decent job in the 07 primary and general elections handicapping the races using these methods of trends and comparing approvals to polling data, but the confusing and scary thing for Lunsford is the fact that with the dip in McConnell's Democratic support and support out of Louisville, Kentucky Moderates are staying put. He needs to garner at least 60% to 65% Moderate support to win.

The magic numbers for a Republican candidate is 25% Democratic, 85% to 90% Republican and 50% Independent. With Kentucky's overwhelming advantage in Democratic voter registration, the numbers above is what it takes for a Republican to win in Kentucky. At this point McConnell has the numbers, according to SurveyUSA's June polling; 29% Democratic, 87% Republican, and 52% Independent. But he is finally entering into the danger zone. Can Lunsford capitalize and push McConnell into the red?

 

Bruce Lunsford is Within Striking Distance of Mitch McConnell

The presumptive Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Bruce Lunsford is within striking distance of presumptive Republican nominee Senator Mitch McConnell.

A poll dubbed the Kentucky Poll conducted by WKYT and Lexington Herald Leader indicates that it really doesn't matter who the Democratic nominee is, both Greg Fischer and Bruce Lunsford are 12 percent down to McConnell. That percentage speaks volumes as many Kentuckians seem to be fed up with Senator McConnell and it appears a Democratic candidate with some major cash and support could give Mitch fits.

McConnell's approval rating is resting at 48% and his totals in respect to a theoretical challenger mirrors that total. His latest SurveyUSA approval rating was his second lowest ever at 46%. So the Kentucky Poll seems to be sound in that regard. McConnell's approval among Democrats is inching close to the dead zone, 26% of Kentucky Democrats approve of McConnell. A Republican candidate must garner at least 25% of the Democratic vote to win a statewide election in Kentucky.

Someone Tell SurveyUSA There is no OTHER!

The latest SurveyUSA poll for the U.S. Senate is again useless, the results are badly skewed one way or the other for Lunsford and or Fischer because of the stupid OTHER option. There are no Others, we have our candidates. If the likely voters are not willing to vote, they hang up or they answer undecided. Anyway I expect Lunsford to pull this out on name I.D alone, but I would like to see some real polling results without the damn Other.

Senator McConnell Approval Rating Second Lowest Ever

Even though Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell drew no opposition for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, his approval ratings are tanking. It confirms what I have been thinking; McConnell may be feeling the heat that all elected officials are feeling at the moment, the economy, gas prices, reverberations from a failed session of the Kentucky General Assembly (yea I know he is not a member, but in Kentucky a politician is a politician) and massive partisan bickering should all be considered factors why Senator Mitch McConnell's approval/disapproval rating is dead even at 46%.

• Overall - (Second lowest)Approval 46% - Disapproval 46%
• Republicans - (Lowest Ever) Approval 61% - Disapproval - 33%
• Democrats - Approval 39% - Disapproval - 55%
• Moderates -  (Tied Second lowest) Approval 40% - Disapproval - 52%
• Western KY - (Third Lowest) Approval 48% - Disapproval - 46%

The big one is his slide with Kentucky Moderates over the past few months. Not good for McConnell seeing this group is Kentucky's largest voting block.

I have two theories why McConnell is experiencing a drop in his approval ratings across the board; all elected officials are experiencing the fallout from a frustrated public, in this case McConnell's slide does not benefit, say Bruce Lunsford, the presumptive Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate unless Lunsford pounces quickly and takes advantage of this opportunity. Second; he could be feeling the heat from some bad press and the attacks from the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate.

Either way McConnell could be vulnerable and it would be wise for Lunsford to dig into the piggy bank a little and maybe run an attack ad or two against McConnell as soon as the Democratic primary is over, risky, but a risk I would take. If he can cash in from sliding approval numbers via the first real poll for the Fall race, Lunsford could have McConnell on his heels in June and that is something no one would have predicted or even said was possible.

BUT his, for the most part, static approval/disapproval with Democrats must change, if he maintains a 30% or above approval rating with Kentucky Democrats, he will be almost impossible to beat.   

We Endorse The Lesser of the Two Evils, We Endorse Bruce Lunsford

The way I figure it, if we have a chance to defeat Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell why not go for it. I have had many conversations with many people but I have not spoken to the person I originally endorsed, Col. Andrew Horne, but I don't feel I need to.

I am not going to sing the praises of Bruce Lunsford and write about how good of an ole boy he is, facts are he has the cash to make McConnell sweat and that may be enough and may not. If you can't feed the bears and kiss the snakes, get out of the political forest and for all the remaining rebels out there, pretty much the entire Kentucky blogosphere, if you can't accept the lesser of the two evil principle as a means to motivate, go volunteer as a camp counselor or adopt a highway or some shit, get out of politics, especially Kentucky politics.

He should breeze through the primary, so I will not be doing much jumping up and down until the general. So go ahead, call me a bobble-head, sell out, hack, or make something up for all I care. We need to give it our best shot and defeat Mitch McConnell, maybe luck will be on our side.

Bruce Lunsford Touts 2003 Fletcher Endorsement

I guess Larry Keeling was board absolutely to death Saturday and stopped by a Lunsford meet and greet. Keeling posted on his blog that Bruce Lunsford is attempting to spin his endorsement of former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) in 2003 in a way that it will aid him in the fall.

Bruce Lunsford is attempting to slam Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) for abandoning Fletcher during the blackberry jam scandal and the spin is he supported Fletcher and McConnell did not. Huh? He is trying to sale his endorsement of Fletcher in a way that will get him Republican crossover votes. As stupid as it sounds that is what he is attempting to do. I don't know who is running his campaign but this is ridiculous.

Keeling tried to stomp on Lunsford for looking to the fall before we wins in the spring, unless he drops out or Lord forbid he dies, he will certainly win. SurveyUSA has released new poll results and the other candidate Fischer has 9%, yea 9 fricking 9%, but he is a viable candidate you know. At least he is leading the OTHER David Williams now, wouldn't it be a hoot if David L beats his ass for second place in May.

Beshear Administration Deny Involvement In Horne Withdraw

Well folks there you have it, a 100% official denial from the Beshear administration. Governor Steve Beshear's Chief of Staff and current GOLD Director, Jim Cauley, has officially denied they had anything to do with Col. Andrew Horne's withdraw from the U.S Senate Democratic primary.

From the Lexington Herald Leader

Jim Cauley, Beshear's chief of staff, said Horne asked for a meeting with the governor Monday afternoon and it lasted "10 or 15 minutes."

"Andrew made his decision all by himself with no encouragement from us," Cauley said. "The governor told Andrew there would be other opportunities."

As for Horne's reasons, "you'd have to ask Andrew," he said.

Also a DSCC spokesperson says they also had nothing to do with Horne's withdraw.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which Lunsford said played a big role in talking him into the race, also denied putting pressure on Horne.

"No, we have never urged anyone not to run for the seat. Our goal all along has been to encourage opposition to McConnell," said Matt Miller, DSCC spokesman.

The truth is out there and the people that were involved with his campaign, like myself, really does know the truth. I am sifting through everything and will follow the lead of Col. Horne. He is not talking and appears to be isolating himself from the Senate race altogether.

I am not sure if Horne will ever actually tell his side of the story, but when and if he does the progressive blogosphere will be waiting. This makes my skin crawl but and I will follow Horne's lead on another note, I will boycott the U.S. Senate election unless something drastically changes. I call on all progressive bloggers to boycott this Democratic primary, or get behind a so called X candidate, a candidate that appears to have no chance. This is our time to protest.

Col. Horne a No Show at KCJEA Conference?

A number of Kentucky County Judge Executives have asked me today why U.S. Senate candidate Andrew Horne (D) missed out on the biggest gathering of local officials in Kentucky. The Kentucky County Judge Executive's Association conference is usually a buzz with local elected officials and a great place to form relationships with the people that could make or break a primary candidacy, hint, the sample ballots.

Of course Bruce Lunsford and Greg Fischer were there and I am still trying to confirm if Horne was actually a no show. If he did miss out on this event he better get on the phones and call every single Democratic Judge Executive. Rumors were flying around the room that Horne had dropped out of the race, I am trying to squash those rumors as fast as I can.

There was an estimated 106 Judge Executives and 350 or so magistrates at the event and I was told that Greg Fischer was being escorted by LaRue County Judge Executive Tommy Turner and that turned a few heads seeing that Tuner is a very respected member of the Judge Executive community.