Well, there it is, the most important economic indicator of the month is here. No, it's not factory orders, no, it's not money velocity, no, it's not consumer confidence, it's TWO little words in the English language; Considerable Time. These words indicate that the FED is not ready to commit to raising interest rates in the summer of 2015, even though most pundits believe this is when we will see the first rise in rates since the financial collapse of 2008-09.
This is not a warm fuzzy moment for those who are betting on the economy in the long term. This is nothing more than a free money bet by bankers and investors who have bathed in the trillions of free dollars pumped into the economy since 2010. The free money game will continue even though the language from the shills on Wall Street say the economy has recovered and sunny days are here again.
We can ask one simple question of the FED; if the economy is recovered why not raise rates sooner than later? The answer to that question is as complex as it is simple. The complex version would take 10 pages and 2 days worth of reading to explain the simple version can be summed up in one sentence; the FED, at heart, does not believe we have recovered. If they did then there is no reason to delay the raising of rates even at a time when banks have continued risky lending practices like they did before the collapse.
All we can do is watch the price of Crude Oil and the GDP for for 2014 Q4. No doubt the GDP numbers will be cooked and the price of Crude will likely stabilize in early 2015 to around $55 to $60 a barrel. As we watch the traditional economic indicators, like GDP to Margin Debt Ration and Money Velocity, fade into the ether we must now adhere to the new normal; free money and endless stimulus for the signs in the stars to tell us if the markets will rise or fall.