The Rural Democrat

Will Hillary Clinton Defeat Obama In the End?

CNN has some new polling that should make the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Barack Obama, a little queasy. Obama's numbers are dropping among Clinton supporters and to top it off 43% of Democrats asked say they still want Senator Hillary Clinton to be their nominee.

In early June, just before Clinton ended her run, 60% of Clinton supporters stated they would back Obama if Clinton didn't make it. Less than one month later only 54% now say they will vote for Obama. But more important or dangerous for Obama is the number of die-hard Clinton backers that said in early June they would either vote for McCain or stay at the house on election day, 22% to be exact. Now, according to a new poll released by CNN, a third of the voters asked say they're staying at home. The only possible silver lining in the dark clouds rising is the number of Clinton backers voting for McCain is also down.

It certainly looks like Democratic party unity may be a fleeting dream and I expect McCain to make a move to capitalize on the party disarray, say appeal to Heartland America through promises of magically bringing back the factory jobs and .99cent a gallon for gas, call me Shack the profit, it will happen. But as Obama sneaks closer and closer toward the center, he may find himself locked out of his own house if he is not careful, I call it being bit by your own dog.

Go Recommend it on the Daily Kos!

Obama Acting Centrist or Being Centrist?

Obama's latest remarks in regards to the war in Iraq has sparked controversy among anti-war Americans. Many are starting to speculate that presumptive Democratic Presidential nominee is shifting more toward the center and shedding his far left of center reputation.

Obama did call a press conference later to standby his 16 month withdraw pledge once the heat started rising. Will this be just a blimp on political radar or will this become a trend? Obama knows that the key to this election IS NOT the populated urban centers but Heartland America and he may be changing his tactics to appeal to this very large group of voters.

Go Recommend it on The Daily Kos!

Appalachia exposed? or Kentucky exposed?

I find it amazing that Kentuckians apparently do live in the stone age. I defended the Bluegrass State but will no more, as it appears the people have spoken on the so called issues of gender and race. See Poll results (Here)

21% of likely voters say Obama's race would be a factor in this primary. Too me that is a very high number and the undecideds rest at 19%, so split that percentage and you get some odd 30.5% of likely voters figure Obama being Black is a bad thing or could keep him from being elected. That is a legacy Kentucky holds and the data indicates Kentucky will continue to hold that terrible reputation. But it is not isolated to the Highlands of Kentucky, the entire Commonwealth carries this burden. And Kentucky's Black population apparently believe that Obama's race will keep him from being elected the most, at 31%.

Apparently the comments made by Reverend Wright mean a little something to Kentuckians.

• Either Very important or Important - 43%
• 29% says it doesn't matter
• 28% are not sure

If you split the undecideds, it is very apparent that Reverend Wrights comments have caused Obama big trouble in Kentucky.

Obama's comments in regards to bitter rural Americans mean very little to Kentuckians according to polling data collected by the Lexington Herald Leader.

Coal is Critical to our National Security

Barack Obama is trying to appeal to rural voters in Kentucky by running a coal ad that touts his accomplishment of helping secure funds for clean coal technology. (See Ad Here)  He is also planning on campaigning a bit in the Bluegrass State. I am little surprised he is but glad to see it. But I am not sure just how coal friendly Barack Obama really is, I hate to say that but it is true. 

We look at Saudi Arabia as the king of good light crude oil. Venezuela's heavier crude is becoming more coveted and is making that small country very rich. The United States is the Saudi Arabia of coal and our very future depends on providing cheap energy to America and then the world.

A study a few years ago weighed in on the possibility of the tap running dry in the Middle East and or soaring oil prices becoming a prelude to a bitter recession that could provide a death blow to part of our society as we know it. The impact on the economy would be devastating and then our national security situation becomes critical. But one light at the end of the tunnel was always our vast coal reserves and the possibility of new technology making it possible to find crude oil in once thought impossible places. The need for energy is paramount and demand is as high as it has ever been. Now we are hanging up our keys to the SUVs and talking Green, which is a good thing. Green is sexy, Green is in fashion. And coal is as demonized as it has ever been, which is not a good thing.

Clean Coal technology is possible, but it will not happen over night. The next President will, as usual, be challenged with some of the most awesome responsibilities known to man. He will be faced with historical world discontent, wars and rumors of wars will be as prevalent as California wild fires. Coal is as important as the US Army and or the Marine Corps, that is fact. But we need to make it cleaner to burn, that is also fact. Hopefully Obama will lead the charge and take clean coal technology seriously.   

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Kentucky is the Reason Hillary Clinton is Hanging On

One thing needs to be made clear; Kentucky could be the sole reason Hillary Clinton is still in the Democratic presidential primary. Hillary is Throttling Obama 62%-28% in Kentucky and she should win West Virginia as well. There is no realistic way Hillary Clinton could win the Democratic nomination, it seems everyone knows its over except Hillary and Bill.

If Kentucky actually sees Obama more than twice I will be shocked and in West Virginia 56%, of registered Democrats favor Hillary and 27% support Obama, 17% have not made up their minds.

Lets do a little math:

According to CNN, Obama has 1845 total delegates to Hillary's 1686. If she beats Obama 30% to 70% in Kentucky and 65% 35% in West Virginia, the pledged delegate split would be 55 pledged delegates for Clinton and 24 for Obama, bringing the total delegate count to 1741 for Hillary and 1869 for Obama. If by some miracle Hillary picks up 65% of the remaining superdelegates that split would be 176 of the superdelegates for Hillary and 95 for Obama. The new grand total, leaving out Montana, Oregon, Puerto Rico and South Dakota, would be 1917 total delegates for Hillary Clinton and 1964 for Barack Obama.

As you can see Kentucky is very much in play and if Obama is wise he will spend some cash in Oregon because as of a few days ago he was leading 51% to 39%. If that holds true and the undecideds no resting at 10% split down the middle, Obama would take Hillary 56% to 44%, bringing the new total delegate count to 1993 for Obama to 1940 for Clinton.

Puerto Rico will be tough for Obama. The Latino vote will likely go Hillary and probably big, the latest poll indicates at least a 12% point victory for Hillary and I will give her that 12% gap. That would give Hillary 31 pledged delegates and Obama 24. That would bring the total delegate count to, 1971 for Hillary and 2017 for Obama.

Now for Montana; Obama was crushing Hillary there and I will give him a terrible 6 point worst case scenario win. The pledged delegates would split at 8 and that would bring the new delegate total to 2025 for Obama and 1979 for Hillary, game over, everyone go home. I didn't even bother counting South Dakota. As you can see the preceding scenario is virtually impossible and Obama still wins. Obama wins this election NO MATTER WHAT. Unless of course, Michigan and or Florida finds a way to be thrown on the wood pile, but that will not happen.

So lets enjoy the attention, hopefully we get some, and wait for the inevitable, an Obama victory.

Does Kentucky Voters Matter to the Commonwealth's Superdelegates

Even though I am very dedicated Obama supporter, I must ask this question; does it matter what the people want or how the people vote? Barack Obama owns Louisville Congressman John Yarmuth (D) and KY-6 Congressman Ben Chandler's (D) endorsements, even though it is a distinct possibility that Obama could get throttled in Louisville and Lexington during the Democratic presidential primary.

The Louisville Courier Journal has offered Obama their important endorsement the weekend before a very close Indiana primary, don't know if that was a motivation for the LCJ but clearly it is a very big advantage for Obama. The superdelegate system and all that is perceived wrong with that system will likely be exposed here in Kentucky. Now that Yarmuth and Chandler have both endorsed Obama I am very curious how Governor Steve Beshear (D) will vote. There is no shame in following the lead of the people and even though I am very happy with Yarmuth and Chandler for their support for Obama, I am also a little disturbed that the will of the people will likely be ignored. Clinton will likely win the primary and miss out on most if not all of the superdelegate votes.

How Much Did Rev. Wright Hurt Obama?

The main discussion, at least in my little circle, is how much did Reverend Wright hurt Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama? Recent polls and opinions say he did indeed hurt the Democratic Presidential front runner but the big question is; how much? The Herald Leader asked this question today.

Obama may have waited too long to denounce his reverend and ultimately waited until another round of controversial remarks were made until he spoke out. It is evident that his campaign was damaged the first time this issue was revealed, he backed away from Wright but never denounced, now he denounced and all but admitted he is in damage control mode. As far as the delegate count is concerned, it is a virtual lock for Obama and he may be shifting to a newer more centered Obama, instead of the perceived left of left Obama.

Obama: 1,730 delegates - pledged: 1,491, superdelegates: 239

Clinton: ,1593 delegates - pledged: 1,332, superdelegates: 261

It is virtually impossible for Obama to lose, unless a load of superdelegates decide to switch over. Obama is also taking heat from his beloved liberal blogosphere after appearing on the FOX News Network. That ended his self imposed boycott of FOX and many national liberal bloggers have abandoned him.

In my opinion he may need a refresher, a new face for the general election. Because he knows if he does not turn it around in Rural America, he will have a tough time with McCain. If you analyze his victories in larger states over the past 2 months, his urban count is great but outside of the city, he usually loses or has lost more and more as the primary draws to an end. Go back in time and take a look at Kerry's numbers, as far as the pattern of rural to urban victories, it is almost identical to Obama's last couple of months. Obama knows this and it appears he is trying to appeal to more of the moderates than the liberals.

I simply do not believe his campaign is ready to implode, as some want to say, especially Clinton types. He knows he has won, short of a betrayal rivaling Judas and while these distraction are certainly not planned, he is taking advantage of the situation.  

Clinton Cruises in Pennsylvania, but Delegate Gap Virtually Unchanged

Senator Hillary Clinton (D) has, of course, won the Pennsylvania Democratic primary as the polls had predicted. But the overall pledged delegate gap is virtually unchanged, no real surprise either. But the most concerning news of the night is the massive uproar against the negative campaigning, on both sides, but mostly against the Clinton campaign.

As we stated (here) yesterday, the negativity may have already sunk our Democratic party's ship even before the real fight in the general election begins. Polling data is consistent in the opinion that a massive defection of Democrats is certainly possible in the general election. Having Republicans early in the GOP Primary call Senator John McCain (R) the most Liberal Republican Senator in Washington may have sealed his bid for the presidency without them even knowing it. It seems that a portion of Democrats have no problem crossing over.

That means many Democrats DO NOT see McCain and Bush in the same light and that is a problem that needs to be addressed. If that analysis is ultimately proving to be true, I would expect Senator Mitch McConnell (R) to jump on the McCain gravy-train in the Fall, he could hitch a ride and seal his reelection without much effort at all.

How will Obama do in Pennsylvania? Does it Matter?

My whining about Barack Obama's comments about us bitter rural Americans is in the past, yet I do think of him in a different light than I did and have no regrets about tossing some grenades his way. Tomorrow is shaping up to be one of the most important days in his Presidential run.

But will it matter? According to a new Suffolk University Poll released today it does not. According to the new poll 20% of Democrats asked indicated they would vote for presumptive Republican nominee Senator John McCain if their Democratic candidate fails to make it to the general election. 20% of Democrats polled said they're not sure what they will do if their candidate fails to make it. If you split the undecideds, as much as 30% of Pennsylvania Democrats could cross-over and vote for McCain.

These results speak volumes about the negativity surrounding the Democratic primary and the damage control to come for the Democratic nominee.

Obama is rising and staying steady in National poll

Many national pundits are predicting an historical bloodletting in Pennsylvania between the Democratic candidates and the GOP is praying for that analysis to become reality. The infighting in the Democratic party may just create a very difficult situation for our party nominee and cause our candidate to be at a huge disadvantage in the fall.

Clinton fever spread throughout Kentucky like a bad flu this weekend and it looks like Hillary will shore up Kentucky as many had predicted. Obama has been climbing steady in the National Gallop poll and has seemingly stabilized at the most crucial time in this Democratic primary.

With Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey's endorsement, it will hopefully pull Obama a little closer in the Keystone State. According to a recent Rasmussen poll, Clinton leads Obama by 10 points. Hopefully Obama's national trends translate into a close race in Pennsylvania.

Obama would certainly covet a Beshear endorsement, and as much as I support Obama, Beshear would be better off following the lead of the people, even though they are likely to vote Clinton.