The Rural Democrat

Knott County Officials Guilty of Vote Buying

It must be something in the water over in that part of the country and it certainly has to be some sort of a record, two consecutive county judge executives convicted of vote buying. A jury of 12 has found Knott County Judge Executive Randy Thompson, a Republican, and three other county officials guilty of vote buying and misusing county funds for private property. They face 10 years in prison for their crimes. Of course they will appeal. But I will add them to the list!

Busy As Hell for For Week or so

For anyone thats cares; light blogging for a week or so. Very busy.

Will King David Williams Obstruct

Seems the 2008 special session of the Kentucky General Assembly has started without the usual posturing, well for now. The House state government committee unanimously passed the pension overhaul proposal and no rumors of resistance exist, within the House. Elements of the KEA have spoke out against the measure, but it appears it will have no effect.

Democrats have come together under the leadership of Governor Steve Beshear in a House divided by thoughts of leadership positions and power. For now those thoughts and ambitions are shelved.

By Wednesday the bill could reside in the Republican controlled State Senate. With friendly lawsuits being tossed around like a political football, will it spill over into the special session? Will Senate President Williams (R) allow it to pass? I find it strange as hell that Beshear would countersue now, on the first day of a special session. Protocol I guess.

McConnell's Approval Trend Confusing, but Dangerous for McConnell

I have crunched the numbers and they do and don't make sense. Senator Mitch McConnell (R) has enjoyed a relatively unmolested last term but a comprehensive analysis of his approval numbers, multiple month trends versus the latest SurveyUSA poll results suggest that the Democratic nominee, Bruce Lunsford, has a real shot.

Polls sometimes create a different reaction than a run-of-the-mill approval survey, but the shift in opinions and support in regards to May's approval ratings and June's SurveyUSA Senate poll is a head scratcher.

The graph to the left really does not do my argument much justice, but take a look at the Democratic numbers, May approval was 45%, June's poll was 29%, no real surprise there. Louisville voters also turned on McConnell in the latest poll compared to May's approval ratings, a whopping 59% in May to 42% in June's poll. But Kentucky's most important idealogical group, Kentucky Moderates, seemed to have stayed put, in the mid-40's.

My experience tells me that when Democratic voters shift, along with a large percentage of Louisville voters, Moderates shift as a result of the mathematical relationship between the two fields. This time it does not. Why? Sampling maybe?

It can not be blamed on any large discrepancy between East/West May/June numbers, they are virtually the same between May and June. Even Pro-Life voters dropped a tad for McConnell in June. But I can not find a mathematical reason why the numbers for Moderates appear static.  

I did a decent job in the 07 primary and general elections handicapping the races using these methods of trends and comparing approvals to polling data, but the confusing and scary thing for Lunsford is the fact that with the dip in McConnell's Democratic support and support out of Louisville, Kentucky Moderates are staying put. He needs to garner at least 60% to 65% Moderate support to win.

The magic numbers for a Republican candidate is 25% Democratic, 85% to 90% Republican and 50% Independent. With Kentucky's overwhelming advantage in Democratic voter registration, the numbers above is what it takes for a Republican to win in Kentucky. At this point McConnell has the numbers, according to SurveyUSA's June polling; 29% Democratic, 87% Republican, and 52% Independent. But he is finally entering into the danger zone. Can Lunsford capitalize and push McConnell into the red?

 

Congratulations to Daniel and Allison

He took the plunge into the soupy seas of marriage, lets hope he doesn't drown!! Just kidding, they will be just fine and they started their marriage the right way, in private.