The Rural Democrat

How Much Did Rev. Wright Hurt Obama?

The main discussion, at least in my little circle, is how much did Reverend Wright hurt Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama? Recent polls and opinions say he did indeed hurt the Democratic Presidential front runner but the big question is; how much? The Herald Leader asked this question today.

Obama may have waited too long to denounce his reverend and ultimately waited until another round of controversial remarks were made until he spoke out. It is evident that his campaign was damaged the first time this issue was revealed, he backed away from Wright but never denounced, now he denounced and all but admitted he is in damage control mode. As far as the delegate count is concerned, it is a virtual lock for Obama and he may be shifting to a newer more centered Obama, instead of the perceived left of left Obama.

Obama: 1,730 delegates - pledged: 1,491, superdelegates: 239

Clinton: ,1593 delegates - pledged: 1,332, superdelegates: 261

It is virtually impossible for Obama to lose, unless a load of superdelegates decide to switch over. Obama is also taking heat from his beloved liberal blogosphere after appearing on the FOX News Network. That ended his self imposed boycott of FOX and many national liberal bloggers have abandoned him.

In my opinion he may need a refresher, a new face for the general election. Because he knows if he does not turn it around in Rural America, he will have a tough time with McCain. If you analyze his victories in larger states over the past 2 months, his urban count is great but outside of the city, he usually loses or has lost more and more as the primary draws to an end. Go back in time and take a look at Kerry's numbers, as far as the pattern of rural to urban victories, it is almost identical to Obama's last couple of months. Obama knows this and it appears he is trying to appeal to more of the moderates than the liberals.

I simply do not believe his campaign is ready to implode, as some want to say, especially Clinton types. He knows he has won, short of a betrayal rivaling Judas and while these distraction are certainly not planned, he is taking advantage of the situation.  

Mark Nickolas Slams Rural Kentucky and Can Kiss My Ass

The guy has been gone for months and still seems to get under my skin. This time he blames Obama's woes in Kentucky on us KKK loving - hate the black man Rural Kentuckians. Sure, some people in Kentucky in general are racist, like everywhere else, but to use the excuse that Obama's low poll numbers are a result of Rural Kentucky's 1950's racist mentality! Nickolas you're not only a jerk, you are a an idiot.

I say this saddens me because these numbers are largely (but not entirely) a reflection of the unwillingness of mostly rural Kentucky Democrats to support a black candidate, plain and simple. You can sugar-coat this if you'd like, but at its core, there is a great deal of discomfort among many rural Kentuckians to support a black candidate. In fact, beyond the cities of Louisville, Lexington and Frankfort, it is rare for an African-American to get elected even to the state legislature.

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I think we're seeing the exaggeration of poorer, white, rural voters rejecting a black candidate, and the highest concentration of these voters are in Eastern Kentucky. That region of Appalachia is one of the poorest in the country, is overwhelmingly white, more than 80% are registered as Democrats (at least in Pike and Floyd counties where Dems are concentrated), yet they are represented by a conservative Republican congressman (Hal Rogers)

Maybe you hit on something jackass, maybe the reason they elect Rogers is the fact that he appears to be Conservative and most Democrats in Eastern Kentucky are Moderate to Conservative Democrats, yes there is such a thing. Not because Obama's skin is darker than Clinton's, but the sole reason Obama appears to be left of left to many Rural Kentuckians. I know thats not true and that is why I endorsed him. If you analyze the crosstabs (HERE) you will also find the Clinton is thumping Obama among Kentucky Liberals, 58% to 35%. So the majority of Kentucky Liberals are racist? The lopsided totals in Eastern Kentucky is a result of political ideology not race.

But Nickolas' closer takes the cake.

I still have a huge fondness for Kentucky and wish I were at Churchill Downs this coming Saturday, but there remains rural regions of the state that are still afflicted by a 1950s mentality which refuses to join first-class cities like Louisville and Lexington in the 21st century, and that's really too bad.

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Senator McConnell Approval Rating Second Lowest Ever

Even though Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell drew no opposition for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, his approval ratings are tanking. It confirms what I have been thinking; McConnell may be feeling the heat that all elected officials are feeling at the moment, the economy, gas prices, reverberations from a failed session of the Kentucky General Assembly (yea I know he is not a member, but in Kentucky a politician is a politician) and massive partisan bickering should all be considered factors why Senator Mitch McConnell's approval/disapproval rating is dead even at 46%.

• Overall - (Second lowest)Approval 46% - Disapproval 46%
• Republicans - (Lowest Ever) Approval 61% - Disapproval - 33%
• Democrats - Approval 39% - Disapproval - 55%
• Moderates -  (Tied Second lowest) Approval 40% - Disapproval - 52%
• Western KY - (Third Lowest) Approval 48% - Disapproval - 46%

The big one is his slide with Kentucky Moderates over the past few months. Not good for McConnell seeing this group is Kentucky's largest voting block.

I have two theories why McConnell is experiencing a drop in his approval ratings across the board; all elected officials are experiencing the fallout from a frustrated public, in this case McConnell's slide does not benefit, say Bruce Lunsford, the presumptive Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate unless Lunsford pounces quickly and takes advantage of this opportunity. Second; he could be feeling the heat from some bad press and the attacks from the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate.

Either way McConnell could be vulnerable and it would be wise for Lunsford to dig into the piggy bank a little and maybe run an attack ad or two against McConnell as soon as the Democratic primary is over, risky, but a risk I would take. If he can cash in from sliding approval numbers via the first real poll for the Fall race, Lunsford could have McConnell on his heels in June and that is something no one would have predicted or even said was possible.

BUT his, for the most part, static approval/disapproval with Democrats must change, if he maintains a 30% or above approval rating with Kentucky Democrats, he will be almost impossible to beat.   

Barack Obama to Hold Press Conference with Rep. Ben Chandler

I guess U.S Rep. Ben Chandler (D) will be announcing his endorsement for Illinois Senator and Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama today at 11:30am. U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth will join Obama and Chandler at the press conference.

Supreme Court Says Indiana Voter ID Law OK

I have studied this issue until I am numb. During my tenure as Bruce Hendrickson's campaign manager we pushed for a voter ID during the Democratic primary and guess what, he won the Democratic primary for Secretary of State while pushing a very, very partisan issue. Not a Democratic battle cry but a Republican one, we tried to avoid pandering to any one idealogical group and it worked. We backed off the voter ID, only to lose to Trey Grayson in the Fall. But on the flip-side, if the Republican candidate appears more liberal than the Democratic candidate, we would have lost all the same.

Indiana has some of he toughest voting laws in the United States and the United States Supreme Court says their tough Voter ID law is OK. Hendrickson had a plan to avoid the disenfranchisement that could accompany a Voter ID law, the elderly and poor would have been eligible for a free state ID card, thus eliminating the number one argument against the law. But partisan bickering has polarized this issue to the point that no viable Democratic candidate will ever push it, ever again, unless we get another Hendrickson, that I doubt seriously, candidates like him come once every 50 years. Grayson needs to thank his lucky stars, every damn day.

Voter fraud happens and it happens more often that what is reported. Especially in Southeastern Kentucky. But as long as this issue remains a wedge issue between the parties, Kentucky will never eliminate voter fraud; and it is sad that such issues become partisan because of minority fears. BUT to defend my party, Republicans benefit from smaller voter turnouts and tougher voter laws could suppress the vote, but that argument is supported by no data. Political arguments and partisan warfare are usually not supported by sound statistical analysis but by emotion.

Does Kentucky need tougher voter laws or do we need a relaxing of the laws on the books? I suspect as we analyze Secretary of State Trey Grayson's (R) tenure in the office we will find that he will have accomplished very little in the realm of voting law. The trick is to increase voter turnout while eliminating voting fraud, not easy. Kentucky needs a system for early voting, a voter receipt and possibly a voter ID. But until the Democratic party relaxes their partisan fears in regards to a voter ID card, you will never see that in Kentucky.

Governor Beshear Stepping Up to Lead

Even though his first session of the Kentucky General Assembly was filled with inter-party bickering and horn locking with King David Williams and crew, Governor Beshear appears to be sick and tired of his falling approval rating. Governor Beshear said NO to a two year state road project plan that would have tied the administration's hands behind their backs if any project would have cost more than originally planned, now like that doesn't happen.

Former Governor Paul Patton (D) brushed the dust off his upper lip today and spoke out in favor of Governor Beshear's handling of the illegal hiring of a new president for the Council on Postsecondary Education, Lexington lawyer Brad Cowgill. Attorney General Jack Conway (D) backed up the Governor and issued an opinion of the council's unlawful hiring practice. Governor Beshear needs to be decisive but not necessarily fast in his final action, but he must be thorough when he decides what road he wants to travel with CPE. He has the privilege of many options afforded to a sitting Governor and every advantage to come out of this situation smelling like a rose.

With the veto of the state road plan and his decisive reaction to the CPE, a special session might catapult him back into the catbird seat before Fancy Farm. He has many opportunities to turn his fledgling approval rating around in quick order. Being politically healed aside, Kentucky needs healing and most importantly Kentucky needs revenue.

Can Beshear scrape up enough political capitol to pass a cigarette tax increase, before election day in November? That is a tough job and would take the resolve of a 1000 pound moose, but if he racks up some victories in a few short months, he may have just enough to pull our Commonwealth out of this funk. Lord knows the General Assembly has no desire to help anyone but themselves.   

The Lunsford Collection

Seems everyone got the tag. They should have done a better job, I wonder if they got some cheap labor from some first graders.

The Lunsford Collection offers a well-known brand of baggage. After years of hefty advertising investment, customers have come to know The Lunsford Collection name, but it's time they knew the features.

"It's heavy. It's dirty. And, Bruce Wants Kentucky Democrats to Carry if for him

TheLunsfordCollection.com