UPDATED: Could Senate District 30 Say NO to Roger Noe?

UPDATE 12:10pm Nov 30: I have been burning up the phones and it seems the opinion is split if this will damage Noe's chances. We clearly have two camps and the pit is full at the moment. I will have a very important update tonight. And it appears Rep. Tim Couch (R) is likely to withdraw his name from the list. So it appears Rep.Brandon Smith (R) will be the likely GOP candidate.

Some factors to consider

• Predicted <10% voter turnout, more like 5%, about 3,500 voters. (+Noe)
• Voter hauling will be HUGE! (+Smith, money advantage)
• Likely 5 week election period (+Noe)
• Church controlled vote likely (Likely a Draw)
• Money advantage to the Republican as always (+Smith)
• Heavy Democratic regional registration (+Noe)
• Democratic Candidate will likely gain the support of Lieutenant Governor Elect Daniel Mongiardo (D) (+Noe)

So by virtue of unscientific reasoning, Noe has the overall advantage on the surface, BUT this information could very well hurt his chances. I will conduct an unscientific poll next week and will formulate a +/- opinion then. Cyberhillbilly points out a very important point in a comment made in this post. If Noe is perceived to be anti-coal, the coal interests in this region will pour the cash into the GOP candidate's pocket. But the coal interests do not have the political power they once had. Now have I changed my tune? No I have not but I will pledge my support to the Democratic candidate no matter who that candidate may be and as of today I still believe former state Rep. Roger Noe to be the most qualified for the job. I will take an active part in this election. Tune in tonight and hopefully I will have the final word if Noe's blog entries damage his chances of getting the nod to run.

New information is always bad news for potential political candidates because no one wants to hear about new GOOD information. There is no way to put a positive spin on this update about the possibility of former state Rep. Roger Noe (D) being tapped to represent the very conservative Senate District 30 as the Democratic candidate in the upcoming special election. Notice the key term "very conservative" because it is an ultra conservative senate district.

Jonathan Gay A.K.A Cyberhillbilly posted the new information about comments made by the potential Democratic candidate in regards to Governor Elect Steve Beshear (D)'s views on mountaintop removal.  Noe doesn't only seem to have a problem with MTR, he seems to have a problem with coal industry in general.

As a general disclaimer; I am here to provide political analysis, the following is not a rebuke or an endorsement of Noe's views.

His views on MTR is not the show stopper,the following are excerpts from his, not very well known, column on the blog called East Kentucky Freedom Press. Search "Noe"

The articles linked (here),(here) and (here) could very well kill his chances of receiving the consensus nod to represent the Democratic party in this special election. Like I stated above, it does not matter if I agree or disagree with Roger Noe, the fact that he will likely be crushed if and when this information hits the barbershop and early morning Hardees crowd is the real issue here. Harlan, Perry, Bell and Leslie that makes up Senate District 30 could likely be the most conservative Democratic Senate District in the Commonwealth and his views on issues like gay marriage, coal mining, flag burning, the Ten Commandments and religion is, in my political opinion, a certain death nail for him in this election.

To back up my last comment; I always depend on the opinions of a short list of mostly non-political friends and family in regards to the overall opinion of Harlan and Bell counties. Before this information came to light Noe garnered roughly 90% of their support. Once I read a couple of tidbits from the linked article 0% said they will support him. If anyone is dumb enough to think a Rep. Brandon Smith (R), if he is the GOP candidate, would ignore and not use this information is a jackass.

I think we MAY (did not mean to leave that out) need to go back to the drawing board and choose a different person to represent the blue party in this special election. Not because former state Rep. Roger Noe is a bad candidate, he is certainly qualified for the job. I have absolutely no faith that he COULD win, if the GOP candidate exposes this information, Noe could be done.

By the way certain Republicans in Harlan had this info and tried to tip me off a couple of weeks ago but I failed to recognize the significance of the intel.

Comments

"significance of the intel"

Can you say Senator Brandon Smith! I knew the the day would come we he shoves it straight up Mongoardo's *** and now he will. Thank God for liberals thank God!

Brandon got his ass kicked out of house didnt he? I think he might have more important things to worry about like moving his girlfriend out of the county!!!!!

Shocked!!! That is the only word that justifies my response to this situation. Wow!! That word might work too. Noe is out. No way can he be the "D" choice now. He sank his own ship before it ever set sail.

Off subject but does anyone know why Bluegrass Reports has gone dark?

[Mountain Man]

Couldn't Noe just ask why Smith doesn't wear his wedding ring when the House is in session?

[Cyberhillbilly]

I saw Jake's post. I didn't think he crapped on anyone. The guy's entitled to his opinion (and his spin.)

I didn't take a shit on anyone.

But Johnathan is right. That is definitely spin and opinion on my part. To which I'm entitled.

[Cyberhillbilly]

Shack's right to focus this on the politics of it all. After all, we'll never convince one another we're right on the merits. But the politics of this WILL hurt the guy. The coal will provide the money, the other things will serve as the message sent to the voters and churches. I may be misjudging the politics of that area, but I grew up there and don't believe for a second this'll be anything less than a big net negative.

[Jake]

Actually, my opinionated post was about allowing Republicans to control the conversation. If you allow them to control it? Noe's a goner.

But if you stand up and control talking points and actually run a race? Any Democrat can win in that region. The only difference in Noe and other Democrats is that he's spoken his mind publicly.

Caving because the guy is on the right side of equality and the environment is a tired argument. It's time to actually take wedge issues off the table. We proved it could be done in all regions of the state on Nov 6.

[Roger Noe]

The blogs and columns were written to provoke thought, critical thinking, and informed discussion on the critical issues that face rural Kentuckians. They do not necessarily reflect the view of the author.

The republicans never think about anything beyond winning an election and helping out their rich buddies. They perfer that no one ever write or think about the issues that impact thier daily living. When someone does, look at the reaction.

The republicans never think about anything beyond winning an election and helping out their rich buddies. They perfer that no one ever write or think about the issues that impact thier daily living

God, what a load of prejudiced and biased crap. I don't think even most Democrats believe that wrong-headed stereotype.

Keep on saying stuff like that, Noe. It'll have the same effect as those Republicans who say that the Democrats are unpatriotic because they don't support the war. That doesn't work for the republicans who try it and it won't work for the Dems who say stuff like that about Republicans.

Name recognition has the priority in this one, with respect to go along. The name for this senate race is Bruce Hendrickson.

Why is someone who is for clean air, clean water and safer working conditions for coal miners labeled "anti-coal." The cyberhillbilly claims to be for free markets. Coal mining is very far removed from being part of a "free market." Coal mining has privatized profit and socialized risk. Who pays for the full costs for the thousands of disabled coal miners? The taxes generated by the coal industry do not even cover the cost of the roads they damage in Eastern Kentucky. Who pays for the damaged ground water? Eastern Kentucky use to have some of the best ground water, now the tax payers are forced to pay for "city water."

Harlan, Bell and Perry counties are overwhelmingly Democtratic. Harlan County had a great representative when Roger Noe held the our state seat for 16 years. He will be a great State Senator.

Let us not be fooled by those like the cyberhillbilly who believe that because someone stands for better working conditions for coal miners and clean water that they are "anti-coal."

cyberhillbilly in no way bids against better working conditions. Noe may have been great one day but the KFTC has him by the balls. cyberhillbilly wants progress and it seems Noe may in fact be a chameleon and a KFTC suck instead of true anti-coal. He may be shut down.

The simple facts are Roger Noe can't win, especially if the race is against Brandon Smith.

He can't win Harlan County the best he could hope for is a split. He is too controversial in his own county and doesn't have and can't raise the money to run a strong campaign in the rest of the district.

Alexander and Hayes both have the money and the ability to raise more to be competitive against Smith or whomever the Republicans can throw at them. They both raised a ton for the Governors race.

Noe has stepped on a lot of toes trying to bully his way into the nomination and won't be getting any help from Beshear or Mongiardo to get the nod.

The fact that Noe has a long list of things he’s said and written for the Republican to use or misuse against him is just the final nail in his coffin.