Will turnout be light or heavy? Will this year parallel Patton versus Peppy. Larry Keeling reminded me of the horrible turnout in 1999, when Patton yawned his way to a second term. In 2003 the turnout doubled and history was made, Republican candidates won 3 out of 6 constitutional offices for the first time since the late 1960's.
Now we are going to the polls to extract a corrupt Republican administration. But will the GOTV efforts result in a heavy turnout? Keeling seems to think the buzz is as quiet as the Peppy years.
- DEM = 23.8% = 374,813
- REP = 16.9% = 143,222
- OTHER = 7.9% = 14,207
If we see this scenario play out on November 6th, the Republican candidate will need at least 35% of the Democratic vote, 90% of the Republican vote and 50% of the Independent vote to win, staggering.
- DEM = 42.0 = 667,432
- REP = 40.5 = 382,865
- OTHER = 21.6% = 37,895
If we go by trends and probabilities we have to take a look at the similarities between the 2003 primary and the 2007 primary. In 2007 the historical overtones of righting a wrong may push people towards the polls. The GOTV effort of our Unions is building a head of steam and should be very effective in Louisville for the Democrats. Combined with the KDP and the Beshear and Mongiardo GOTV we might enjoy a 2003ish turnout.
Another likely and even more devastating possibility for our GOP hopefuls is the fact that some are predicting a huge Democratic turnout and a marginal Republican turnout. May 2007 registration statistics.
- DEM = 45% = 715,991
- REP = 30% = 306,858
- OTHER = 30% = 54,318
In 2003 a Republican candidate needed 90% of their party vote, 25% of the Democratic vote and 50% of the voters that are registered as Other to win. Now with the possibility of Republican stay at homes and or crossover voters, our GOPers might be going through the motions awaiting certain defeat on November 6th.
If we use the last set of hypothetical turnout statistics, Republican candidates would have to garner a staggering 37% of the Democratic vote to pull out a victory. I would say that has never and will never happen, I could be wrong, but it seems highly unlikely. I would say the Republican vote will NOT go 90% for the Republican candidates. Grayson's situation is more critical, he should expect no higher than a 80% Republican vote, 75% is more likely , he would need a staggering 40%+ Democratic crossover vote to win, seeing that the Other voters are static. Simply impossible!
Keeling also reminded me of elections back home, the primary is usually the election. The general is usually a yawn fest and a technicality. If the current message holds fast for the Democrats, we could see a 30%+ straight ticket vote on the 6th of November and that could mean lights out for ALL Republican candidates, even Farmer. As of today it is all hypothetical, but one thing is for sure, do not under estimate the Republican turnout.
Of course the preceding is dependent upon my math being correct, I was actually paying more attention to Monday Night Countdown than my calculator.